tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37450195008575655522024-03-06T07:23:36.196+05:30Sutanu Guru(An IIPM Think Tank Blog)Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.comBlogger113125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-24254518862423517782013-08-10T17:55:00.000+05:302013-08-16T17:55:59.859+05:30IT IS TIME TO BAN PUNDITS IN INDIA<div style="text-align: justify;">
I have become a very big fan of two Americans in recent times. Simply because they hold established <i>pundits</i> in utter contempt. One of them is statistician and number cruncher Nate Silver who is chucking his ‘prestigious’ job with the venerable <i>New York Times</i> to join the ‘oh so downmarket’ ESPN. In 2012, President Barack Obama “lost” the first debate to Republican challenger Mitt Romney so badly that most <i>pundits</i> – and opinion polls – started predicting an Obama loss. So pervasive was this “Obama will lose” aura created by myths that many Obama fans became disconsolate. Nate Silverwho claims no expertise on political matters and issueswas perhaps the only one who kept insisting that Obama will win, and win convincingly. Most <i>pundits</i> laughed at his so called stupidity; many accused him of bias and prejudice. In the end, Obama won, and won convincingly. This is what Silver has to say about political <i>pundits</i> in America: “I would argue that MOST political <i>pundits</i> are completely useless; the outliers are the few who are worth reading. Plus the political <i>pundits</i> take themselves very seriously...”
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I couldn’t help recalling these lines when I was forced (<i>by a fractured hip bone</i>) to watch hours of television where <i>pundits</i> were analysing latest opinion polls on the Indian political scene. The glittering cast of <i>pundits</i> adorning the TV channels was so formidable that it would be heresy to question their unquestionable wisdom. But Nate Silver kept coming back at me. And it dawned on me that MOST <i>pundits</i> were talking nonsense. The opinion polls indicate that the Congress is going to get battered in the coming elections because of rising prices, poor governance and corruption. You don’t need opinion polls to arrive at that conclusion; just talk to <i>non-pundits</i> in the form of attendants and nurses in hospitals, taxi drivers, maid servants, dhobis, street hawkers, newspaper vendors...and you can figure out. The opinion polls also seem to indicate that the BJP will not benefit and the elections will result in a fractured mandate and a hung Parliament. India’s best <i>pundits</i> then gave their expert opinions on issues ranging from caste to Muslim votes to either the unsuitability or improbability of Narendra Modi becoming Prime Minister.
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Ever since this magazine was launched in 2005, there has not been a single electoral verdict in India that has delivered a fractured mandate. And of course, there has not been a single verdict that has not exposed the <i>pundits</i> as no better than astrologers and tarot card readers.
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In 2011, venerable media outfits and even more venerable <i>pundits</i> – backed by opinion polls – kept saying that Jayalalithaa Jayaram and AIADMK will win the Tamil Nadu assembly elections but won’t find it easy because of the ‘formidable’ alliance between the DMK and the Congress and the populist schemes announced by them. In the event, Jayalalithaa simply decimated her opponents. Then there were quite a few morons who suggested in early 2012 that no one could form a government in Uttar Pradesh without the support of the Congress. As hysterical reporters marvelled at the crowds gathered to hear the crown prince Rahul Gandhi, opinion polls and <i>pundits</i> pontificated on a fractured mandate, a hung UP assembly and the possible reemergence of the Congress. The UP voter, like Nate Silver, was laughing all along. In Punjab, the <i>pundits</i> were discussing the cabinet formation by Congress leader Amarinder Singh hours before the results were announced. The venerable <i>pundits</i> were discussing how the revolt by Manpreet Badal, the nephew of Akali Dal leader and chief minister Prakash Singh Badal, who formed his own party would badly damage the ruling alliance of BJP and Akali Dal. When the results were announced, some <i>pundits</i> blamed the voters for their lack of wisdom; just as many <i>pundits</i> have branded the whole state of Gujarat as “communal” because the damned voters there keep voting for Narendra Modi!
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I simply did not hear one simple thing: that the Indian voter is repeatedly delivering decisive mandates and it will be either the UPA or the NDA in 2014. I am sure <i>pundits</i> on TV channels will have fancy explanations when the electoral verdict of 2014 throws egg on their faces. Just in case you think my words, in the tradition of Digvijaya Singh, reveal that I am a product of an RSS conspiracy, please recall what our <i>pundits</i> were saying before the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Almost everyone predicted that the Left parties and the “Third Front” would be the winners. Within hours of the results being announced, when the Congress and the UPA won a clear mandate, the same <i>pundits</i> started discussing how good a Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi could be!
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I was forced to watch another “Made for <i>Pundits</i>” carnival on television; this one about Amartya Sen versus Jagdish Bhagwati and the Kerala versus Gujarat models of development. Added to this was the debate about poverty – with some Congress leaders claiming you could eat a full meal for Rs.12 or even Rs.5. The <i>pundits</i> are very clear: it is a ‘global, neo-imperialist, corporate’ conspiracy to claim that poverty has declined in India. Then again, people like Modi who tout the Gujarat model of development are false messiahs and frauds because it is Kerala with its superior human development results that is the true road map for India. (<i>You can add Bihar and the Nitish Kumar model to this now. And don’t forget the Bangladesh model because pundits make Indians like me ashamed by showing better human development results in Bangladesh!!!</i>).
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I then recalled the other American who can add me to his list of fans [<i>Not that he will care!</i>] – Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of ‘Black Swan’ and the man who became famous because he was one of the rare ones who actually anticipated the great collapse of 2008. He has written another book called the ‘Anti-Fragile’ which you really must read if you have the time and the mental stamina; not to speak of having an open mind. In the book, Taleb systematically trashes the “<i>pundits</i>” of the world and their wisdom with actual evidence. And this is what he writes about globally respected <i>New York Times</i> columnist Thomas Freidman of the “World is Flat” fame and Joseph Stiglitz, one of the most revered <i>pundits</i> of our times and another Economics Nobel Prize Winner like Amartya Sen: “There is something more severe than the problem with Thomas Friedman, which can be generalised to someone causing action without being completely unaccountable for his words....had Stiglitz been a businessman with his own money on the line, he would have been blown up, terminated. Or had he been in nature, his genes would have been made extinct so people with such misunderstanding of probability would eventually disappear from our DNA”.
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I really wish India encouraged “contrarian” voices like this! I do not have the expertise of the <i>pundits</i> when it comes to the poverty war being played out in the media. But I have grown up in Chattisgarh and Odisha and I have personally seen the decline of poverty in the places I have lived in and visited again and again. Alone who says poverty has not declined in the towns and villages that I know intimately, or that it has worsened, is a fraud. Anyone who has lived in these areas knows that it is the Congress who encouraged the plunder and exploitation of the natives. There is no serious analysis required here because the Congress has ruled most of India for most of its existence as an independent country. But I can claim no knowledge of India as a whole. Of course, there is one thing that strikes me when I (SMS your views with your name and topic to 0-9818101234) hear about the wonderful stories of development in Kerala, Bangladesh and Bihar. The most practical way to check human behaviour is to look at how they actually behave. So I keep thinking, if the Kerala model is so great, why do so many from that state keep looking for a better life elsewhere? And then I think, what would happen to Kerala if the nurses, electricians, carpenters, doctors, software engineers and many other professionals stopped sending money “back home”? Besides, if as pronounced by the father of all <i>pundits</i> Amartya Sen, if things are so hunky dory in Bangladesh, why do we so many citizens of that ‘humanly developed’ country want to cross over to India? Of course, Indian <i>pundits</i> say that illegal immigration from Bangladesh is a conspiracy hatched by the RSS types! I interact with <i>pundits</i> like this and think: these are the same guys who kept praising Communism and the Soviet Union even as people from the blessed Communist countries displayed a stupid tendency to migrate to ‘Imperialistic’ domains. These are the same guys who became <i>pundits</i> specialising in environment, inclusive growth, secularism and....
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Need I say more?
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Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-31415629701217694582013-07-06T14:20:00.000+05:302013-07-06T14:20:02.854+05:30DREAMING ABOUT THE DREAM DEBATE<div style="text-align: justify;">
And so the expected has happened. The Mother of all <i>Mai-Baap</i> sarkars in the world has passed an ordinance clearing the Food Security Bill. At the stroke of a pen, Sonia Gandhi will realize the dream expressed by the grand father-in-law Jawaharlal Nehru at the stroke of midnight in 1947. About 800 million grateful Indians will now marvel at her kind spirit as they get virtually free food from the government (<i>Of course tens of thousands of bureaucrats, contractors and suppliers will soon demand that the Pope declare her a Saint for the untold manna from heaven that she is going to shower on them</i>). After organizing the signature campaign and sending the petition to Rome via Federal Express, this smaller group will carry the Gita or Quran or Bible or the Guru Granth Sahib and flock to temples, mosques, churches and gurudwaras with just a single prayer to their God. “Please guide these 800 million idiots to polling stations and tell them that salvation is guaranteed if they kiss the Hand that feeds them.” And what about the ungrateful who are carping at this once in a millennium gesture of largesse and noblesse oblige? What of their plaintive cries that this will bankrupt an already bankrupt government? What of their warnings that the poor will continue to starve and be malnourished like they have despite more than four decades of similar programs and welfare schemes. Off the record madam’s minions will smile and say they are playing something called Power Games, and not Hunger Games. Acolytes of the crown prince who have an MBA degree will invite applications from employees of the global Pizza chain that coined the slogan: Hungry Kya? Simultaneously, applications will be invited from employees of a species called NGOs (<i>Neo Godly Organisations</i>) who will holler and scream that Modi is culpable of genocide because he doesn’t support the Food Security Bill. Many pundits in TV studios will discuss how cops in Gujarat killed the Bill in a fake encounter. Of since the Bill has divine blessings, it was miraculously resurrected. To cap it all, Pawan Kumar Bansal will be reinstated as the Railway Minister to ensure that all those millions of tons of food grains are transported in the proper “bags”, the Railway Board will create a new post for a senior bureaucrat to oversee this ship of salvation that will be akin to Noah’s Ark. Interested parties will be encouraged to contact certain nephews. The term ‘Gravy Train’ will acquire a new meaning. And of course, the caged parrot will come in handy to fix some potentially ungrateful souls who have the capacity to lure away many of those 800 million souls who might otherwise kiss the Hand that feeds them.
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Since India has gone completely batty and crazy, I think even I am entitled to sing a few loonie tunes. But mind you, the tunes might sound loony to you, but they actually provide a glimpse of the future that awaits India. You see, Madam Gandhi not only has the support of sycophants, fixers, hacks and assorted jholawalas, she has the “intellectual” support of a Nobel Prize winning economist cum philosopher. Yes, we are talking about that argumentative Indian Amartya Sen. When the Parliament was repeatedly disrupted by the coal and the railway scam in April, 2013, it looked as if the UPA government would not be able to pass the Food Security Bill. Amartya Sen jumped into the fray with a delicious display of outrage and basically slammed the opposition parties – mainly the BJP – for blocking such an important piece of legislation. He thundered: “The case for passing this Bill is overwhelming...I would prefer this Bill to no bill at all... Those busting parliamentary discussion should be held responsible for not solving the problem of hunger in the country...we need to ask: who will be held responsible for the deaths of millions of malnourished children in the country?” The obvious questions anyone with common sense would ask is: the Congress has ruled India for about 54 out of 65 years since independence in 1947. What has the party done to even minimize hunger, forget eliminating it? The second question is: the UPA under Madam Sonia had nine years to get a Bill like this passed by the Parliament. Why issue an ordinance when a Parliament session is just a few weeks away? The answer is obvious: political gains. And it is an enormous help if the Godfather of jholawallas lends a helping hand by slamming non-Congress parties. But more important than these political hunger games is the mindset of such Left leaning “liberals” who think that the reforms process has made life worse for India’s poor and hence more and more extravagant welfare schemes are required. This idea of India and this vision of India has dominated mainstream discourse for decades.
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But there are people who offer an alternative vision. For instance, Jagdish Bhagwati whose ideology is completely at odds with that of Amartya Sen. In a speech delivered to the Indian Parliament in 2010, Bhagwati tore apart the Amartya Sen school of thought by saying: “But then, the naysayers, among them the socialists in the currently ruling Congress Party, have rejected the miracle produced by the (<i>1991</i>) reforms by suggesting darkly that the growth lacks a human face and that it is not inclusive, that the gains have accrued to the rich wile the poor have been immiserized, that inequality has increased and that India stands condemned before the world. Perhaps the most articulate critics are the “progressive” novelists of India, chief among them Pankaj Mishra whom the Op-Ed page editors of The New York Times regularly and almost exclusively incite to write about the Indian economy, a privilege they do not seem to extend symmetrically to American novelists to give us their profound thoughts on the US economy. While Mishra’s analysis is eloquent and captivating, (<i>it</i>) is really fiction masquerading as non-fiction. The fact is that several analyses have sown that enhanced growth rate has been food for reducing poverty while it has not increased inequality measured meaningfully and that large majorities of virtually all underprivileged groups polled say that their financial situation has not worsened and significant numbers say that it has improved”.
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The whole of India is talking about the imminent face off and showdown between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. In reality, Modi and Rahul are mere symbols who represent two divergent ideas of India. The two ideas have been best articulated by Amartya Sen and Jagdhish Bhagwati. As students, both were contemporaries at Cambridge University (<i>Manmohan Singh was another contemporary</i>) and Sen moved towards the Left while Bhagwati moved towards the right. It would indeed be a dream cum true for the two to have a public debate about their divergent visions of India’s future. Many economists and analysts have even demanded that the two engage in a verbal duel. Sadly, that has not happened, though Bhagwati seems very keen on it because he told The Economic Times in an interview: “Of course I have been against pro poor policies. From my first job in the Indian Planning Commission in the early 1960s, I have been working on how to reduce poverty. What I have objected to are the specific anti poverty policies that Professor Sen has backed, in one way or another. Those policies have demonstrated actually increased poverty! You must ask Professor Sen, and not me, why he will not engage in a debate with me, even though he has been invited by others. After all, he is the one who used the phrase argumentative Indian...”
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Will the Nobel winning philosopher rise to the bait and the occasion? We are all waiting with bated breath. But we know where Sen’s preferences lie when it comes to politics. When asked about dynasties in Indian politics, he said: “Would Rahul someday make a good Prime Minister? It is quite possible. I know him a certain amount. I once actually spent a day with him and I was very impressed...I think he is very talented. It was clear to me that he was committed to India’s development”.
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Food for thought, isn’t it?!</div>
Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-59259051363923525272013-04-11T17:20:00.002+05:302013-04-11T17:20:25.405+05:30THE STUPID HYSTERIA OVER NARENDRA MODI<div style="text-align: justify;">
And so the noise, the trading of barbs, the hyperbole and the hysteria has begun. It is now certain that Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi will play a key and decisive role in formulating the BJP strategy for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. It is also certain that both his die hard supporters and his die hard opponents will raise decibel levels to a crescendo of cacophony, allegations, counter allegations and recriminations. For Modi fans, the man is a Messiah who will miraculously bring about good governance to the country. For those who are implacably opposed to Modi, the man is a fascist and a “Maut ka Saudagar” who is a clear and present danger to the very Idea of India. Logic, facts, common sense and even a semblance of sanity vanishes when these two groups are pitted against each other. His fierce opponents inhabit the world of academia, mainstream media and activism. For decades, these secular warriors have dominated the discourse on history, politics, society and what not in English media. Not all the secular warriors are open or even closet supporters of the Congress. But they do share a pathological dislike for Modi and are convinced it is their fundamental right to expose him. His fans mostly inhabit the world of Internet Hindus who revel in sniping at mainstream media icons and academic giants whenever they criticise Modi. For them, Modi is a saviour who will release India from the clutches of secular fundamentalists and an establishment that is beholden to the Gandhi family. For his supporters, the very idea of Modi becoming the Prime Minister is akin to salvation; for his opponents, it is as good as Apocalypse. This hysterical war of words will be played out on television screens, in newspaper and magazine pages and in the brave new world of the Internet. This hysteric positioning of ‘with us’ or ‘against us’ rhetoric has taken the absurd to absurd, and often laughable levels.
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But almost everybody seems to be a missing a key point here. I can openly bet that a majority of Indian citizens and voters are yet to form a concrete opinion about Narendra Modi. Look at someone like me. When his supporters go on and on about Modi magic in terms of development and good governance, I wonder at the hype and also wonder why other chief ministers who have delivered governance are not anointed as messiahs. When his fans keep on and on about how he has won three consecutive assembly elections, I wonder why we forget that Naveen Patnaik and Shiela Dixit have done it before Modi. The converse also applies. When Modi baiters go on and on about the “genocide” in 2002 in Gujarat, I wonder why these secular warriors do not talk as passionately about the massacre of Muslims in Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra when the Congress has ruled the States. As far as I am concerned: post-Independence India has witnessed two genocides: in Nellie, Assam in 1983 and in Delhi in 1984. In both the events, the Congress was implicitly or explicitly complicit. People like me are convinced that Modi can never escape moral responsibility for the Gujarat 2002 riots. But we are also convinced that the track record of the Congress is even more brutal and horrific when it comes to dealing with minorities. So when secular warriors keep harping only on Modi, people like me start wondering what their real agenda is. Take another example, when some people praise Modi for high growth rates and industrialisation of Gujarat, his sworn enemies dismiss the praise by saying Gujarat was always a developed state and Modi is getting undue attention. Perhaps they are right. And yet, when people die of swine flu in Gujarat, the same people descend like a pack of wolves and hold Modi personally responsible and culpable for those deaths. The fact of the matter is that both his fans and opponents are equally responsible for creating the larger than life image of Modi. Secular warriors gleefully do victory laps when the Wharton Business School and the University of Pennsylvania withdraw an invitation to Modi. Modi fans start swooning over his address to students of Sri Ram College of Commerce as if no Indian politician has ever given a more important speech.
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In all this gibberish, balderdash and nonsense, we seem to forget that there are Indians who neither love nor hate Modi. Yes, they are very aware of his steady rise as the most powerful leader of the BJP. Yes, they are also aware of the daily onslaught of charges and abuse that he faces from secular warriors. But believe me, no matter ho passionately you dream about for or against Modi rhetoric, most Indians have not yet made their minds. Lets us look at some facts first. Gujarat 2002 was neither the first nor the last riot that embarrassed and ashamed India. But there is one difference here: no other riot and its aftermath has been so persistently and relentlessly investigated by all manner of agencies and institutions including the Supreme Court of India. No other chief minister of India has been so persistently investigated either, no matter what spin doctors would have you believe. And by no means are all the investigations over. There is still a possibility that Modi might be found legally culpable. If that happens, he can only blame his own alleged acts of omission or commission. But aren’t we forgetting something here: surely law stipulates that a man is innocent till found guilty and convicted by a court of law? No matter what your ideological fervour or prejudice, surely it is a fact that no chief minister in India has faced one decade of scrutiny and investigation than this man.
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The second indisputable fact is applicable to both his hysterical supporters and opponents. His supporters think it is a matter of time before he becomes the Prime Minister and saves India. His opponents think he will destroy India in the unlikely event that he becomes the Prime Minister. Come on guys: why don’t you leave it to the voters of India to decide? Both his opponents and supporters can expect nasty surprises from the Indian voter.
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Till then, can you please pipe down this hysteria and get on with life?</div>
Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-27549922428172427422013-03-07T11:50:00.000+05:302013-03-08T11:55:31.995+05:30Playing the fiddle and crying wolf<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Why has India failed to overhaul, modernise and transform its infrastructure sector? The answer is threefold – poor policy making, poor regulatory oversight, and extreme levels of crony capitalism!
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THERE is such a torrent of information, news, PR stuff that passes as news, analysis, opinion and pseudo punditry that it becomes almost impossible to stitch together the seemingly diverse strands to weave a coherent picture. But once you just making a list of the seemingly unrelated events, you cannot escape looking at the big picture. And the big picture is a frightening one of the entirely unnecessary and destructive implosion of India’s ambitions to take its infrastructure at least above Third World levels. Just consider the following news reports or opinion pieces that you might have read in newspapers- more often white than pink-in recent times:
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1. In the second half of 2012, it was reported that India actually lost about 60 million mobile connections. So instead of marching towards a subscriber base of one billion, India now has less than 900 million phone subscribers. The reason given is that mobile service providers are disconnecting ‘inactive’ numbers to boost bottomlines. Of course, you must have also read that MTS abruptly disconnected 1.8 million customers by shutting down its services in Mumbai claiming it was forced to do so because of Supreme Court orders.
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2. Some time late last year and early this year, the infrastructure group GMR announced that it is withdrawing from a prestigious and crucial highway project that is supposed to link Kishannagar in Rajasthan with Ahmedabad. GMR officials stated that the group was withdrawing from the project because the National Highways Authority of India was taking too long to acquire land for the highway project. In contrast, NHAI officials complained that the group is withdrawing because it is facing a financial crisis and is using tardy land acquisition as an excuse. Another infrastructure group from the state of Andhra Pradesh, GVK also withdrew from similar highway projects.
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3. Sometime in July 2012, the entire northern and eastern grids of India virtually collapsed resulting in massive power cuts and outages across vast swathes of India. Life literally came to a standstill as even trains stopped dead in the tracks. As is wont in India, there was a furious blame game with the Power Grid Corporation accusing some states of irresponsibly overdrawing power from the national grid. Around the same time, you must have read news reports or rumours that the Gandhi family had requested the Akhilesh Yadav government in Uttar Pradesh to ensure uninterrupted power for Amethi and Rae Bareilly as loyal voters were up in arms against prolonged power cuts. Of course, you must be aware that soon after the collapse of the power grid that made India a laughing stock, the Union Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde was ‘promoted’ to the post of Union Home Minister in a cabinet reshuffle.
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4. Television news channels that telecast live a press conference addressed by Aam Aadmi Party stalwarts Arvind Kejriwal and Prashant Bhushan have been reportedly served defamation notices by Reliance Industries Ltd. During the press conference, Kejriwal and Bhushan had made a series of allegations against Reliance Industries related to the KG basin gas project and accused the central government of protecting the interests of Reliance Industries at the cost of national interest. Most of you would have either seen the press conference or read about it in newspapers. But the drama of the live telecast diverted our attention from a crucial fact: according to the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons, gas output from this critical source is slated to decline from last year’s level of about 37 million standard cubic meters per day to about 27 mmsd in 2012-13 and even further to about 22 million mmsd by 2013- 14. A host of power and fertiliser plants dependent on gas from the KG basin are effectively crippled. Meanwhile, there is a running battle going on between the CAG and Reliance Industries over audit of the project, with no resolution in sight. You might recall that Sushil Kumar Shinde was given the Home portfolio after the power grid disaster. In this case, after persistent rumors that the then Petroleum Minister S. Jaipal Reddy was being tough on Reliance Industries Ltd, he was shifted as Minister of Science and Technology.
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5. Just recently, the Supreme Court of India pulled up the Central Bureau of Investigation for the tardy pace at which it was investigating the alleged coal block allocation scam. The CAG had opened a virtual can of worms in 2012 when it accused authorities of massive irregularities in allocations of coal blocks. There are many who seem to think that the alleged coal allocation scam is even bigger than the 2G scam, though media interest in the issue seems to have tapered off after an initial flurry of reports and speculations. But once again, allegations and counter allegations over the alleged coal bloc allocation scam had diverted our attention from a crucial and deeply distressing fact: according to a recent Reuters story, India imported more than 72 million tonne of coal in the period April-December 2012. That is an almost 50% jump compared to last year. The same Reuters story quotes analysts saying that coal imports during fiscal 2012-13 will be about 107 million tonne and climb further to 115 million tonne by 2013-14. That is because domestic coal production is simply failing to keep pace with growing demand. By the way, India has the third largest reserves of coal in the world and such massive imports are putting a further strain on India’s already serious trade and current account deficits.
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6. Some of you might have read a surprise story in February 2012 which stated that Kingfisher Airlines surprised employees by paying one month salary to its employees. Employees of the airline claim that they have not received salaries since May 2012. Of course, we all know that Kingfisher Airlines is effectively grounded and shut down. There are reports that banks that have lent money to the airline are sure they can recover only a part of the amount even if the courts liquidate the airline. In many ways, the virtual demise of this high profile and once celebrated airline is symptomatic of how the once soaring civil aviation sector in the country is in danger of a crash landing. According to a study by the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy based on data released by Airports Authority of India, passenger traffic will actually decline by 2.5% in 2012-13 as compared to the previous year. This is mainly because of a steep fall in domestic air traffic.
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7. The Chief Minister of Delhi, Sheila Dixit, was featured in newspapers on February 25, 2013, for a strange reason. She was quoted as apparently saying those residents of Delhi who complain of high power tariffs should consume only what they can afford. When the distribution of power was privatised in Delhi in 2002, there was hope that private firms will ensure that the then figure if 55% T&D loss – an euphemism for theft – would be drastically reduced. That in turn would actually lead to lower tariffs for consumers in Delhi. Of course nothing of that sort has happened and power shortages as well as high tariffs have become a political hot potato for the Sheila Dixit government. But Delhi is only symptomatic of the entire country. According to the Central Electricity Authority, India is looking at a power deficit of more than 10% in the current year. Power cuts range from about one hour a week in states like Gujarat to about 30 hours a week in states like Tamil Nadu. Mind you, both are industrialised states. The less said about the so-called poor states, the better. The reason given by the authority is critical shortages of coal and gas – two things we have already mentioned above.
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8. In 2012, Union Commerce Minister Anand Sharma admitted to Parliament that only 154 out of 587 Special Economic Zones approved under a 2005 policy were operational. In contrast to the promise of creating millions of jobs and creating China style manufacturing jobs, the actual number of jobs created was just about 800,000. The minister stated that SEZs accounted for about a quarter of exports from India. What he didn’t add is that most of these export earnings came from software firms that had shifted base to SEZs to available tax exemptions. Even a child knows that even a fraction of the Chinese miracle has not been repeated by Indian SEZs, with most of them becoming speculative real estate deals.
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9. Things were not looking so bad once upon a time. When Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister of India, he implemented a cess on sale of petroleum products to exclusively finance the expansion and modernisation of India’s highways, including the prestigious Golden Quadrilateral project. He gave the responsibility to implementing the scheme to Major General B. C. Khanduri. Even critics of BJP and the then NDA government reluctantly admit that the highway modernisation project was one of the genuine success stories delivered by the Vajpayee government. Around the time the NDA lost power in 2004, India was adding about 18 kilometers of spanning new highways every day. Today, that figure has dropped to a measly 2 or 3 kilometers at best.
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Clearly there is something seriously wrong with the infrastructure sector on India. One top level industry analyst recently told me why he thought that the recent policy to allow FDI in the retail sector is more of a joke than a revolutionary step. He simply laughed at the idea that global chains like Wal-Mart will invest huge amounts and transform India agriculture as well as food processing industries. His logic: Wal-Mart is not going to invest money to build power plants that will allow cold storages to function. Nor will it invest dollars in building roads that will connect the rural hinterland to urban markets. He further said that one of the key reasons for the rate of GDP growth crashing from more than 9% a year to just about 5% a year now is because of India’s appalling and inexcusable failure to overhaul, modernise and transform the infrastructure sector. According to him, this failure is going to haunt India for many many more years to come. That is because infrastructure projects take years to come to fruition and even a dramatically charged up UPA regime cannot do much in the immediate future in terms of concrete results.
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What actually went wrong? The answer, without beating about the bush, is threefold. The first is poor policy making. The second is poor regulatory oversight. And the third is extreme levels of crony capitalism. Look at how the UPA government adopted policies to allocate spectrum in telecom and coal blocs on the mining sector. The policies were inherently flawed and bound to generate controversy and confusion. The results are there for all to see. Something similar happened with a policy decision by the civil aviation ministry to allow airlines only with at least five years experience of domestic flying to launch global operations. Something worse is happening with the proposed Land Acquisition Bill that will make it a nightmare for investors to acquire land for any infrastructure project. There doesn’t seem to be any hope too of this government paying heed to common sense voices and adopt sensible and transparent policies. The second key reason for this unfolding nightmare is poor regulation. The Delhi Electricity Regulatory Authority is a classic case. One year, the body accuses the private power distribution firms of unethical behaviour and refuses to entertain their demands for a fare hike. The next year, it mysteriously allows an even bigger hike despite widespread protests. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation has similarly failed to look either after the interests of the consumers or behave in a consistent and rational manner. We all know what has been happening and what is happening with the telecom regulator TRAI. Then again, it did appear as if the regulator for the petroleum industry the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons was sleeping even as gas production from the KG basin started falling alarmingly.
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But poor policy making and poor regulation are mere manifestations. The real reason is crony capitalism. There have been so many allegations of scams during this regime that it is difficult to keep track of all of them. They seem to come out as regularly as pot boilers starring Akhsay Kumar. But there is one common strand in almost all the allegations of the scams. They are related to the infrastructure. Power, SEZ, telecom, highways, coal blocks, gas fields and civil aviation seem to to be sectors that have been the worst affected by scams. The sad thing is: there seems to be no end to this brazen practice of crony capitalism. The implosion of India’s infrastructure sector will continue.</div>
Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-5457741308148064152013-02-04T16:25:00.003+05:302013-02-04T16:25:47.888+05:30WHO SAYS MODI BHAI AND RAHUL BABA ARE THE ONLY CHOICES FOR PRIME MINISTER?<div style="text-align: justify;">
Congress leaders were triumphant after results of the Gujarat assembly elections were announced. Senior leader P. Chidambaram said in virtually as many words that Congress had won because it had restricted Modi and BJP to barely 115 out of 182 seats. For Modi fans, the script was entirely different. His third successive election victory made him a strong contender to be the BJP candidate for Prime Minister. In Jaipur recently, nervous Congressmen heaved a sigh of relief and shed tears of joy when Rahul Baba finally agreed to lead the Congress in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Since then, we have seen an overdose of articles and columns comparing the two as potential prime ministers. If you go by excitable media reports, 2014 could well be an American Presidential style election where voters will have to choose between Modi Bhai and Rahul Baba.
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But I most humbly disagree. If you look deep and hard, India has literally a wild variety of choices when it comes to who should be the Prime Minister. Come on, if Deve Gowda, the late I. K. Gujral and Manmohan Singh can become Prime Minister, surely almost anybody can. And I am not talking about the likes of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar and Jayalalitha as strong contenders. In the true spirit of democracy, I cast my net wide and far and came up with a very rich catch of choices. Here is a not so comprehensive list of gifted, talented, visionary and messianic Indians who have superb qualifications to be the next Prime Minister of India:
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<b>Asaram Bapu: </b>Who better than this fountain of Vedic Wisdom and champion of gender equality and female empowerment. I am not so sure about what his domestic and economic policy agenda would be. But I am absolutely convinced this great man will do a superb job of making all our borders safe and secure. You see, almost all his female devotees will be dispatched to our borders. Dancing to the tunes of devotional songs, they will all keep asking real and alleged enemies to treat them like sisters. The Pakistani soldiers will be so inspired that they will start beheading themselves. The Chinese would be so shell shocked that they would promptly give up all claims on Tibet. And there will commence a citizen movement in Bangladesh that will demand the return of all illegal migrants from India. Each cabinet meeting will be a Satsang where Asaram Babu will drop further pearls of wisdom.
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<b>Akbaruddin Owaisi: </b>This mind blowing orator and contender for the Nobel Peace Prize will firmly have a simple domestic agenda. His first decision as Prime Minister will be to declare the birth anniversary of the last Nizam of Hyderabad as a national holiday. His second decision would be even more historic. He will decree that all police stations in India be shut down for 15 minutes once every week. That will enable the 25 crore Muslims of India to show the 100 crore Hindus of India who the real Boss is. Even as Hindus and Muslims indulge in a new national pastime and sport called This Week in Riots, the new age Nizam will go to London as a medical tourist. This will greatly improve relations between the former Imperial Power and the new Caliphate. Owaisi will also announce a weekly award worth Rs.100 million for a slogan writing contest where you will be encouraged to denigrate Hinduism. Hordes of media celebrities and secular activists and academicians will literally kill each other to become participants.
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<b>Poonam Pandey: </b>This new Light of Asia will bring about revolutionary and unthinkable changes in India and perhaps even in the world at the drop of a strap. You see, every time Hafiz Saeed makes a menacing threat against India, this leader will make an even more menacing threat. She will threaten to “reveal all” to the world and expose the duplicity of the Pakistani state. Every time China says it must have Arunachal Pradesh, this icon will promise to “bare all” if China persists with its perfidy. And each time America disappoints India by not sentencing the likes of David Headley to death, she will summon an emergency cabinet meeting in the showers. The agenda, of course, would be to “expose it all” for the world to see. Poonam Pandey will also create history by leading the first ever all woman government. Sunny Leone would be our permanent representative to the United Nations. Sherlyn Chopra would be our Ambassador to the United States. Rakhi Sawant would be the Union Minister of Home and Mallika Sherawat would be the Union Minister for Health and Education. All of them will regularly tie Rakhi to Asaram Bapu. You know which Rakhi I am talking about.
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<b>N. Srinivasan: </b>This visionary and selfless leader will take so many bold steps that the Indian economy will grow bigger than that of China within a decade. And his imprint would be stamped both across domestic and foreign policy frontiers. To begin with, he will organize something called the ICL – Indian Caste League. Upper caste and OBC chieftains and leaders of Khap Panchayats would be allowed to bid for teams. The floor price for the auction would be one billion American dollars. In each match, the man of the match would be the one who kills the most lower castes, Dalits and tribes within a stipulated time period. The winning team, of course, would be the one with the best kill record. Bihar, Haryana and Maharashtra would be the natural contenders to play host for the finals. There will be one other condition: all teams have to sign a bond that will make Sunil Gavaskar and Ravi Shastri the permanent commentators. Srinivasan will implement equally revolutionary policies in the foreign policy and defence sectors. He will organize an open auction of the Indian armed forces at a glittering event in Dubai. Indian companies will not be allowed to participate. Only multinationals, particularly those from China, will do so and the event would be telecast live on all channels of the Star Network. This franchise will be called IDL – India Defence League. There will be a third franchise called ISL – India Suicide League. In this, bidders will be encouraged to push more and more farmers to commit suicide. You must have guessed by now that Sharad Pawar would be the Chief Mentor of this franchise.
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<b>Rohit Shetty: </b>Bollywood is the heartbeat of India and is capable of throwing up some sterling candidates for the post of Prime Minister. I can think of the duo of Javed Akhtar and Shabana Azmi who would make poetry recitation mandatory in cabinet meetings. I can think of Mahesh Bhatt who would offer valuable advice to Barack Obama even as he is shooting his next soft porn venture. But the vote actually goes to Rohit Shetty. When he is Prime Minister, he will release yet another sequel of Golmal every time India faces a crisis – either domestic or foreign.
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<b>Arnab Goswami: </b>This is a simple and straightforward choice to vote for. This fearless leader has already declared war so many times on Pakistan, China, America and sundry others that wars would become history when he takes over. As a television anchor, he has bamboozled panelists and mesmerized Indians by repeating just one sentence tirelessly and endlessly: The nation demands an answer. When he becomes Prime Minister, he will change his daily chant which will become: I demand an answer from the nation.
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I am sure fellow Indians have even better suggestions and choices. Please do email and SMS your valuable suggestions. India needs you.</div>
Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-63773964581017377052012-12-28T16:36:00.002+05:302012-12-28T16:36:46.625+05:30WHY HE WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS FOR INDIA IN 2013<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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This man has already achieved what no other non-member of the Gandhi family has ever done. The closest to his record is Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who was Prime Minister for six consecutive years between 1998 and 2004. P. V. Narasimha Rao is another non- Gandhi who completed 5 uninterrupted years as the Prime Minister. The next best is a Gandhi family member Rajiv Gandhi, who led the government between 1984 and 1989. No other Prime Minister – except Jawaharhal Nehru and Indira Gandhi – has survived five uninterrupted years as Prime Minister. Nehru was PM continuously from 1947 till his death in 1964. Indira Gandhi was PM between 1966 and 1984, except for a two and half year exile between 1977 and end-1979. The way things are changing in Indian society and economy in terms of aspirations and expectations, even die-hard supporters of Congress will snigger at the suggestion that Rahul Gandhi could be Prime Minister for 10 consecutive years beginning 2014. So there is absolutely no doubt that, in a factual context, Manmohan Singh has already secured his place in history. It is a different matter that an ‘unelectable’ bureaucrat completing 10 successive years as Prime Minister reflects on the quality and the depth of Indian democracy. But credit must be given. Manmohan Singh will almost certainly complete 10 years as PM. But will history talk about him and his lengthy tenure the way it will keep dissecting the track record of Nehru and Indira? For that matter, forget Nehru and Indira, will he ever acquire the stature that even Vajpayee has assured for himself? Let’s look at it in another, more blunt manner: will history ever talk about the legacy left behind by Manmohan Singh? Quite frankly, history books will confine him to a supporting role at best as they analyze the legacy of Sonia Gandhi. Sad, but Dr. Singh will leave behind no legacy: faceless bureaucrats who selflessly do the bidding of political masters never do so. And yet the man, the economist, the bureaucrat, the courtier and the reluctant politician knows that he has achieved something phenomenal by becoming Prime Minister for two consecutive terms. And even faceless bureaucrats have egos and dreams. There is no doubt whatsoever that Dr. Singh knows his days as Prime Minister are numbered. He knows that even if the UPA manages to win another term in 2014 and Rahul Gandhi decides he is better
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off enacting the role of Sonia Gandhi by pulling the strings from behind the scenes, it is another courtier who would be anointed Prime Minister. He also knows that fawning Congressmen will instantly delete him from even contemporary footnotes the moment another courtier takes his post. I mean, if they don’t care a fig about him even now when he is the Prime Minister, what chance would he have as an elderly statesman without even the fig leaf of perceived power and authority? Surely, it must be rankling. It would rankle any normal human being with normal feelings and human emotions. And Dr. Singh is undoubtedly the embodiment of middle class normalcy. This is where India begins to enter very dangerous times. Dr. Singh would be determined to leave at least some legacy behind. He is not a fool. He knows there is no chance of a political legacy of the kind left behind by Nehru, Indira and Vajpayee. He also knows that history books will credit not him, but Narasimha Rao as the architect of economic reforms. In fact, in terms of economic performance, his long tenure as PM would be torn to shreds by objective historians. Do remember, he was aware of all this even back in 2008 when it was not certain that the UPA would be voted back to power.
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So he sought to leave his personal legacy behind through the Indo-US nuclear deal. His crowning moment was the George W. Bush visit to India and the signing of the controversial deal. So determined was he to leave at least this legacy behind that the normally diffident and reticent man staked everything on the deal. He literally left his party bosses, including Sonia Gandhi, with no option but to cobble together a majority in the Parliament when the Left, which supported UPA-1, withdrew support over the nuclear deal. We then had the disgrace of the cash for votes scam, something that is yet to be honestly investigated. His deal with Sonia Gandhi was clear: he would chase a foreign policy legacy al la Nehru and not murmur as Congress politicians unleashed economically dangerous populism like farm loan waivers and assorted welfare schemes that now look like bottomless holes. The deal worked. But not even partisans can say yet if the Indo-US nuclear deal is a success. The fact is, it will probably be at least 2020 before even one nuclear power plant as envisaged by the deal comes up. And post the Fukushima nuclear meltdown in Japan, and the stubborn resistance – motivated or not – to the 25-year old Kundakullam nuclear plant, it is anybody’s guess if all the hype about nuclear energy solving India’s power sector problems will actually come true.
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Like his tenure was coming to an end in 2008, Dr. Singh knows that 2013 will be the last year of his tenure; this time for good. He still can’t leave a political legacy behind. There is nothing in the domestic arena where he can leave a mark: that would be reserved for the Gandhi family. So out of compulsion, Dr. Singh is again looking through the foreign policy prism to ensure that he leaves behind at least a modicum of a legacy.
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It doesn’t take rocket science to figure out which direction he is headed. It has been clear for quite some time that Dr. Singh is eyeing Pakistan as his enduring legacy. I mean, if a Prime Minister can actually mend relations with Pakistan to the point where even the Kashmir issue would appear solved, his place in history would be doubly assured. It is that temptation that is driving him and his government to adopt policies and take postures that will do incalculable damage to India’s long terms interests and security.
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But before we come to that, let us look at the devastatingly dangerous implications of the deal he seems to have struck with his political bosses this time. Unlike 2008, when high growth rates and buoyant tax revenues had given the government enough resources to play Santa with, the situation is going to be alarmingly different in 2013. The India growth story is in a state of coma, if not already dead. The fiscal deficit is unsustainable. International ratings agencies are threatening to downgrade India’s sovereign debt to junk status. Indian entrepreneurs are voting with their money and feet by preferring to invest in overseas markets. In 2013, India will badly need good economic policy making to rescue it out of the current mess. But rest assured, Dr. Singh will not bat an economist eyelid as his political bosses unleash a tsunami of welfare schemes to ensure that the political odds will be stacked in favour of Rahul Gandhi in 2014. Believe me, he might have personal and private regrets and remorse, but he will not lift an eyebrow in protest as the Indian economy is sucker punched by populism in 2013. Nor will he protest when brazen forms of crony capitalism – FDI in retail, FDI in civil aviation style – will be pushed in the name of bold economic reforms. No Sir: Dr. Singh may know his economics, but he is currently obsessed with history and his shaky place in it. Do even die-hard supporters of the Dynasty and the UPA realize the massive damage all this will do to future economic growth in India? And how poor economic growth will kill dreams of tens of millions of poor Indians who are struggling to join the ranks of the lower middle class? And what would Dr. Singh gain through this Faustian bargain? Does he honestly think that the military establishment of Pakistan and the ruling elite of that country are genuinely interested in a genuine peace deal with India? Why, their very rationale for existence will wither away if India actually changes from being the eternal enemy to a friendly neighbour! To expect the ruling elite of Pakistan to willingly commit hara kiri to allow Dr. Singh an enduring legacy is so naive that it would be laughable, were it not so dangerous. Look at what Rehman Malik said during and after his “friendly” visit to India. He juxtaposed 26/11 with the demolition of Babri Masjid. He said Jundal is an Indian agent. He said there is no evidence against the LeT and its chief. He said that India is instigating separatism in Balochistan. He said everything that the ruling elite of Pakistan have been saying for six decades and more. I shudder to think if a desperate Dr. Singh offers a friendly gesture in Siachen.
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And don’t forget the most viciously cynical political calculation behind this race for a Pakistan legacy. Mending fences with Pakistan will encourage Indian Muslims to vote for the UPA in 2014. Believe me, many Congressmen are actually thinking along those lines.
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God help India.</div>
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Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-33806572629724568812012-12-01T23:26:00.000+05:302012-12-01T23:26:02.802+05:30UNDERESTIMATING THE INDIAN VOTER AGAIN AND AGAIN AND...<div style="text-align: justify;">
The so called mainstream media is at it again – making a fool of itself and displaying unending contempt for the native intelligence of the Indian voter. Once again, we are being told by <i>pundits</i> and sycophantic and servile courtiers masquerading as columnists that the Congress and the UPA have got their mojo back and look set to win the Lok Sabha elections due in 2014. The reasons offered are many. For one, the BJP is in a mess and has failed to capitalize on the serial scams haunting the Congress since 2010. Then again, the voter is wary of a rag tag Third or Fourth Front government propped up by outside support and will reluctantly vote again for the Congress. The most servile are writing about how Rahul Gandhi and his computer baba log are drawing up a “fool” proof strategy to woo voters. The pink papers have been screaming hoarse about the return of P. Chidambaram as the Finance Minister and how he will get the economy back on a high growth path. A related part of this delusional narrative is hailing the decision to allow FDI in retail and capping the use of subsidized LPG cylinders at six a year as proof that the UPA government is determined to push for “reforms”. Of course, the game changer is supposed to be what Jairam Ramesh so cutely described as “<i>Aapka paisa, Aapke Haath</i>”. Yes, I am talking about the decision to resort to cash transfer of subsidies to beneficiaries using the Aadhar scheme. So powerful is the alleged impact of this game changing decision that even mainstream media professionals who are critical of the Congress and the Gandhi dynasty are complaining that the ruling party is resorting to bribing the voters to win another election. In all of this, there seems to be a near unanimity that the Congress will pull off yet another stunning victory. They draw parallels with 2009 when the NREGA scheme was used as a bribe to the Indian voters to win elections. Of course, there are many who are still saying that the Indian voter is still so angry, so outraged and so pissed off with the corruption, hubris and arrogance of this government that they are determined to vote against the Congress. But such voices have been drowned in the cacophony of predicting yet another Congress victory.
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I can only marvel and laugh at such malarkey and nonsense. For ages, the New Delhi-based mainstream media has utterly failed to read the intentions of the Indian voter. It has a habit of getting it wrong almost every time. And yet, it persists in such hogwash. Allow me to quote columnist Tavleen Singh who was a young reporter in 1977 when Indira Gandhi lifted the Emergency and called for elections. She writes:
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“It became clear that Mrs.Gandhi wanted to restore her image as a democratic leader and this could only happen if the coming elections were seen to be fair. Within days of the elections being announced, most of the opposition leaders who were still in jail were released. They were no longer worth keeping in jail since nobody, not even the opposition leaders themselves, thought in January 1977 that Mrs.Gandhi had the slightest chance of losing this election. Every report, even from her own intelligence agencies, indicated that she might lose a few seats; but that there was no chance of a total defeat.”
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That was 35 years ago. Since then, in election after election, the mainstream media has almost always forecasted it wrong – the only notable exception being 1984, when Rajiv Gandhi won a historic mandate after the assassination of Indira Gandhi.
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It would be easy to conclude that most of the mainstream media is blindly and abjectly supportive of the Congress and the Gandhi dynasty when it comes to forecasting election results. A hell of a lot of our mainstream media is guilty of that. But the bigger crime is its failure to read voter intentions. Just go back to the spring of 2004 and you will realize what I am talking about. Let me give you just
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one example. The much talked about research agency AC Nielsen was commissioned by NDTV and The Indian Express to conduct an opinion poll and make a forecast for the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. In a largest of its kind survey, around 40,000 respondents were asked about their voting intentions. The forecast was that the then ruling NDA would win between 287 to 307 seats and rule India for another five years. The BJP was projected to win around 200 seats while the Congress was projected to win around 100 seats. Let me give you one more example from the same year when assembly elections were held along with Lok Sabha elections in Andhra Pradesh. A prestigious survey that featured in the Outlook magazine had the following forecast for the state. The then ruling Telugu Desam was given around 165 seats while the Congress and its allies were given around 125 seats. So NDTV said in 2004 that the NDA would rule India for another five years and Outlook said in 2004 that Chandrababu Naidu and his party would rule Andhra Pradesh for another five years. We all know what the actual results were.
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Now, even a moron would not dare to suggest that the two prestigious mainstream media outlets are hostile to the Congress. In fact, many would suggest that their sympathies clearly lie with the Congress and that they have no love lost for the BJP. And yet, for all their sympathies and leanings, they failed to read or gauge the mood of the electorate in 2004. And I am not singling out NDTV and Outlook. Virtually the entire Delhi-based mainstream media had the same opinion.
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Why did this happen and why does the mainstream media still fail to get it? The answer is two fold. The first, it is deeply rooted in the Durbar politics of Delhi and has no clue about what really is happening in the rest of India. Second, it is susceptible to smart spin masters and courtiers of the day who have their own axe to grind. This was sickeningly revealed during the coverage of the 2012 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. Just pause for a moment and think about the manner in which the mainstream media covered the election campaign conducted by heir apparent Rahul Gandhi. There was unbelievable talk about how the UP voter could actually give more than 150 seats to the Congress and possibly make it the largest party in the state assembly. The less hysterical and shameless parts of the mainstream media talked about how the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party would emerge as the largest party, but would need the support of a vastly improved and powerful Congress to be able to rule UP. I read some of the newspaper articles of that time and saw some TV stories on You- Tube. I tell you, it was embarrassing, downright embarrassing. For good measure, I read up many articles penned during the run up to the Tamil Nadu assembly elections in 2011. They were even more embarrassing, because many actually said that the ruling DMK-Congress alliance would actually negate voter anger against scams by bribing the voters with goodies and gifts. And we all know what happened when the results of the assembly elections in Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh were announced.
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And yet, the Delhi-centric mainstream media is back to its old tricks again by showing utter disregard for the voter, for contemporary history and for facts. Angry voters in India have always thrown out governments. When they are really angry, they don’t conduct stupid debates and ponder philosophically about the viability of alternatives. They just want to teach a lesson to the ruling party, the consequences be dammed. They did that in 1977, in 1980 when they were betrayed by the Janata Party, in 1989 and in 1996. It is both presumptuous and foolish of the mainstream media to think that the Indian voter was not aware of the possibility of unstable governments when she voted in anger.
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Allow me to point out another silly thread in this drumbeat about revived Congress prospects. The pundits say that NREGA was a huge factor in the 2009 election victory of the Congress. They are plain wrong. It was the urban middle class aspirational vote that gave the Congress a mandate in 2009. The fact is – the Congress did poorly in rural areas and overwhelmingly well in cities and urban areas. Can we at least see the 2009 vote in perspective? Could it be that when a genuine crisis looms, voters across the world tend to vote for incumbents? Could it be that Kargil helped the NDA in 1999 and 26/11 helped UPA in 2009?
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But sadly, there is no attempt to do any serious analysis. But I am quite clear of one thing. The Indian voter is about as angry as she was in 1977 and 1989. And this time, the manner in which inflation has derailed household budgets and dreams has further fueled the anger. I am also clear about another thing. The mainstream media will keep projecting Rahul Gandhi as the Prime Minister in waiting. Till the voter delivers her stinging slap in 2014.
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Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-45109369446317383112012-10-01T12:46:00.000+05:302012-10-01T12:46:07.311+05:30WHY THE NUMBERS ARE STACKED AGAINST THE CONGRESS IN 2014<div style="text-align: justify;">
It’s an old cliché no doubt, but elections often are about numbers, mathematics and cold calculations. Yes, charisma, ideology, policies and campaigning strategy do matter. But at the end of the day, it really boils down to numbers. That is the reason why the Republican challenger Mitt Romney looks all set to lose badly to Barack Obama on November 6 when Americans vote for a new President. He is losing despite the terrible economic situation in the United States since Obama took over in January 2009. Obama should have lost, but it is numbers that are working for him. Republican ideology, particularly the hard line attitude of the faithful, has alienated huge chunks of voters. Women, students, blacks and Hispanics are overwhelmingly against Republicans and will vote for Obama. The number of these groups of voters will surely outnumber the angry white voters who will vote for Romney.
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Of course India is vastly different from US. And of course, elections are still – at least officially – far away in 2014. But even at this early a stage, it is easy to see why the numbers appear stacked against the Congress in 2014. And that is the reason why Sonia Gandhi and her advisors and strategists are a worried lot. I am not talking just about the impact of the serial scams like Commonwealth Games, 2G, airport privatisation, Coalgate and the latest irrigation scam in Maharashtra. I am not talking just about the venomous bite of inflation that is destroying household budgets. I am not talking just about the manner in which Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has become the butt of jokes and cruel humour despite the recent and futile efforts of some sections of the media to portray him as a decisive leader. I am not talking just about the damage that reluctant allies like Mulayam Yadav, Mayawati, Sharad Pawar and Karunanidhi will inflict during the run up to 2014 even as they prop up the tottering UPA regime. All these things will have an impact on Congress’ fortunes in 2014. No doubt about that. But it is the curse of cold, hard numbers that could have a more dangerous impact.
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Before we get into the analysis of the cold, hard numbers, let us first take a cold, hard look at the factors that led to the triumph of the Congress and the UPA in 2009. Everybody talks about how the jholawallah advisors of Sonia Gandhi who comprise the National Advisory Council crafted the Congress victory of 2009 by coming up with schemes like NREGA. Then there was the Rs.600 billion farm loan waiver announced in 2009. If you believe these played a decisive role in 2009, you are misinformed and wrong. Overwhelmingly rural states – where you would expect to find grateful beneficiaries of NREGA and farm loan amnesties – like Odisha, Chattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh did not give a lot of seats to the Congress. Including Uttar Pradesh, the Congress managed just 46 out of 195 seats from these states in 2009. In fact, the Congress and the UPA did amazingly well in urban constituencies in 2009. It won 13 out of the 13 Lok Sabha seats on offer in Delhi and Mumbai. That performance was last seen perhaps in 1984 when Rajiv Gandhi swept India in the aftermath of the assassination of Indira Gandhi. So fact number one is that Congress did fabulously in urban centers.
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Fact number two is the massive vote against the Left in West Bengal and Kerala that gave Congress and the UPA 39 out of 62 seats in 2009 in these two states. Fact number three is the strong alliances that gave a lot of seats to the UPA in 2009. In West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Maharashtra, the Congress and the UPA managed to win a massive 98 out of 159 seats in 2009. And who can forget fact number four – YSR Reddy who, along with the Majlis-e- Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM), gave the Congress a spectacular 34 out of 42 seats in Andhra. In 2009, YSR was clearly the incumbent hero who simply swept aside all opposition despite loud whispers of numerous scams and instances of crony capitalism. The last factor is the suicidal behaviour of the BJP that gave the Congress 20 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan in 2009.
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Add up all these facts and it is easy to figure out how the Congress won 206 Lok Sabha seats and how the UPA won a decisive majority in 2009.
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And now comes the curse of cold numbers. Sonia Gandhi and her advisors are painfully aware that there is simply no way that the urban voter will repeat her 2009 preferences. A series of scams have unquestionably and badly dented the image of the Congress amongst urban voters. Sure, governments facing charges of corruption have been re-elected. Consider YSR Reddy of the Congress in 2009 and the Akali Dal- BJP combine in Punjab in 2012. But this time, the stench of corruption and its fallout is so pervasive that the Congress is almost certainly staring at a Bofors like situation. Mind you, Rajiv Gandhi was deeply popular across the nation in 1989 when his party slumped from 413 odd seats to about 150 odd seats. He was certainly more popular than Rahul Gandhi is today. Add the ravaging effect of inflation to the series of scams and you have one hell of an angry urban voter.
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Despite the best efforts of this government, or perhaps because of its utter lack of sincere efforts, food inflation stubbornly stays above the double-digit mark. This has created havoc with household budgets. Add a very high interest rate regime and the soaring cost of home and retail loans and you worsen the mood of the urban electorate. The latest and absolutely stupid decision to ration LPG cylinders is yet another blow. Quite simply, the Congress has blown away its urban chances. Can you honestly see the Congress winning 13 out of 13 seats from Delhi and Mumbai in 2014? Even die hard Congress supporters will think you are a nut case if you believe so. Why the articulate spokesperson of the Congress Manish Tiwari will be damned lucky if can manage to retain his Ludhiana seat!
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Then let’s come to the allies. Mamata Bannerji has already walked away. So the Congress can kiss goodbye to West Bengal in 2014, both for itself and the UPA. At the time of going to press, the crisis triggered by the resignation of Maharahstra Deputy Chief Minister and Sharad Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar because of the irrigation scam had not been resolved. The NCP and the Congress have always been uneasy allies. The unease and distrust will widen during the run up to 2014. What about Tamil Nadu? Well, it is not just Karunanidhi but the entire DMK cadre which is hopping mad at the Congress for the manner in which DMK leaders like Kanimozhi and D. Raja were jailed for months for the 2G scam while not a single Congress leader was touched.
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In a recent State of the Nation survey conducted by our sister publication The Sunday Indian, some of the results were extraordinary. To a question as to whom they would prefer as the next Prime Minister of India, an overwhelming majority of DMK supporters said they would prefer Narendra Modi over Rahul Gandhi. Do remember, the Congress and the UPA had won 98 out of 159 seats in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Maharashtra. That appears virtually impossible today. Why, the Congress and the UPA will be lucky to retain even 50 out of this 98.
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Now comes the last bit of the cold, hard numbers. The Congress has to make up big time in other states and with other voters, if urban voters and allies will lead to a huge fall in numbers. But where exactly will these numbers come from? There are only three states where the Congress has any hope or chance of improving its tally. They are Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka which together account for 53 seats. The Congress won just 8 out of these 53 in 2009. A superb performance will lead to a gain of about 22 seats. But then, the Congress has 33 out of 42 seats in Andhra, 9 out of 10 in Haryana, 20 out of 25 in Rajasthan, 8 out of 13 in Punjab and 5 out of 5 in Uttarakhand.
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Of course, 2014 is still far away. But as these cold, hard and unforgiving numbers clearly suggest, Sonia Gandhi and her advisors know that the bells have started tolling for the immediate future of the Congress and Rahul Gandhi. Of course spectacular comebacks are always possible in politics. It is entirely possible that Narendra Modi loses Gujarat and the Prime Minister actually becomes decisive, assertive and articulate!</div>
Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-37993138709743431972012-09-08T15:47:00.000+05:302012-09-08T15:47:06.725+05:30HOW DR. MANMOHAN SINGH BEATS V.P. SINGH HANDS DOWN...<div style="text-align: justify;">
It was really a no contest till recently. The late V.P. Singh was the undisputed winner of this trophy. He also remains the classic example of a middle class hero who became a middle class villain. Till he became the Prime Minister, V.P. Singh was the anti-corruption crusader and messiah who rode on the infamy of the Bofors scam. Of course, Indians soon realised that pious crusaders do not always become good leaders. Mercifully, his tenure did not last long enough for V.P. Singh to inflict irreparable damage to India.
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I used the words “till recently” because there was some lingering, forlorn hope that the current Prime Minister would at least do something that would enable V.P. Singh to retain the crown. But then, forlorn hopes always remain hopeless. I realised this when I read newspaper stories about how a Supreme Court Bench has yet again criticised the PMO. This time, the rap on the knuckles is because the Prime Minister has failed to convene a meeting of the Cauvery River Authority despite reminders. Allow me to use the words of the Bench: “What do you mean by this? It is shocking that you require the consent of all the states even for a date of a meeting? Is the PM to see his convenience or the convenience of the members? It is surprising that the PMO is asking the convenience of everybody before fixing the meeting.” Just imagine. The Prime Minister is the head of the Cauvery River Authority set up to tackle the often ugly dispute between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka over the sharing of Cauvery waters. What conclusion can you draw from the fact that he is not able to set up a meeting with some chief ministers? Either he is truly helpless and powerless, or he is indifferent and callous. Either ways, it bodes ill for India.
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This incident and the rap on the knuckles by the Supreme Court is not front page news. Nor will it lead our television anchors to froth at the mouth. Yet, in a small but very significant way, it reflects the disappointment and disaster that Dr. Manmohan Singh has been. In 2009, he was a true blue middle class hero because the Congress won virtually all urban seats in the Lok Sabha elections, including seven out of seven in Delhi. Today, that halo has been torn to shreds. Of course, the middle class Indian is very fickle and unreliable. And later historians might have more charitable things to say about the tenure of Manmohan Singh. The more charitable may say that Indians expected too much from him and hence the disappointment and anger.
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But for me, there are some crucial reasons why Dr. Manmohan Singh has become the worst Prime Minister India has ever had.
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The most important reason is that he has presided over an insidious process that has transformed India into a total banana republic. Nothing has been left untouched in this era of loot and plunder; nothing is sacrosanct. Just a few examples will suffice, though the tales of crony capitalism written in his tenure would fill up entire books. BSNL and Air India have been systematically run to the ground and destroyed through incomprehensible policies and decisions. I am not saying that the Prime Minister personally took the conspiracy call to do this. That is childish. But the fact is that private sector players have immensely benefited from the troubles of these two public sector giants. And I won’t be surprised if – as the cacophony over Air India gathers momentum – the two are eventually “privatised” at throwaway prices, their assets and value eroded deliberately. It is in this era of Dr. Manmohan Singh that India has thrown up more dollar billionaires than even China. It is during his tenure that crony capitalism has become <i>de facto</i> policy. Let me quote a few lines from the book <i>Breakout Nations</i> written by Ruchir Sharma to illustrate what has happened under Dr Singh: “Crony capitalism is a cancer that undermines competition and slows economic growth. That is why the United States confronted the problem and moved to take down the robber barons... The Dow index of the top thirty US industrial companies is in constant flux and, on average, replaces half its members every fifteen years. India’s market used to generate heavy turnover too, but in late 2011, twenty seven – 90 percent – of the top thirty companies tracked by the benchmark Sensex index were holdovers 2006. Back in 2006, the comparable figure was just 68 percent... Nine out of the top ten Indian billionaires on the <i>Forbes</i> 2010 are holdovers from the 2006 list, while the 2006 list had only five holdovers. As of today, many of India’s super rich still inspire national pride, not resentment, and they can travel the country with no fear for their safety; but this genial state of affairs can change quickly.” In effect, India has become a true banana republic where the ruling religion is crony capitalism and the ruling chant is scam. This is astonishing because the UPA regime never fails to remind all of us that its heart beats genuinely and passionately for the <i>aam aadmi</i>.
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Just one more example to conclude this observation. You might recall how the then Governor of Andhra Pradesh and veteran Congress leader N.D. Tiwari was seen frolicking with nubile nymphets. Do you know how this scandalous footage found its way into the media? The brothel owner who allegedly supplied the girls to Tiwari wanted revenge. Why? Because N.D. Tiwari had not kept his promise of getting a few mining licenses for her! <i>Mera Bharat Mahan</i>!
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The second reason why Dr. Singh has been such a monumental failure is his inability or unwillingness or both to move even an inch ahead on administrative reforms. Back in 2004 when he was appointed Prime Minister, Dr. Singh had singled out administrative reforms as his most important priority. And why not? Governance in India is in an appalling state because the entire administrative framework has virtually collapsed. There is simply no accountability and both the tehsildar and the secretary level IAS officer treat the citizens as subjects to be lorded over. Our sister publication <i>The Sunday Indian</i> has done a story on how the IAS lobby has stolen the country. One would have thought that Dr. Singh would be well acquainted with the perils of Indian bureaucracy since he was himself a bureaucrat for most of his adult and working life. But in the last eight years, he has not lifted a finger to make even small, cosmetic changes to India’s rotting steel frame. The consequence has been brutal and devastating: the quality of governance is at an all time low and India’s record in delivering health, education and sanitation is actually worse than ever before. He has been unable or unwilling to even prevent bureaucrats holding sensitive posts to retire and take plum private sector assignments in a brazen defiance of norms and law.
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The third and most devastating failure – in fact, the key reason behind all other failures – has been his inability or unwillingness or both, to display some spine. So pathetic has been his track record in this regard that his personal reputation as a man of integrity has become a joke. The charitable would say that our current regime of coalition politics does not allow a Prime Minister all the power that he should have because allies dictate terms. True. In the NDA regime, Suresh Prabhu was widely acknowledged as a brilliant Power Minister. Yet, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was helpless when Shiv Sena decided that Suresh Prabhu must be sacked. Despite such compulsions, Vajpayee had a clear run this far and no further approach. And even troublesome allies knew that and respected his authority. Can anyone say that about Dr. Singh? The other charitable thing we say about him is that real power resides with Sonia Gandhi and Dr. Singh is actually doing the best he can of a difficult job. That is bunkum. Sonia Gandhi is a very intelligent and astute politician. There is no way she would have asked for the head of Dr. Singh if he had put his foot down on at least some crucial issues. It is not Sonia Gandhi who has made Dr. Singh a puppet; it is Dr. Singh who has become a puppet and eventually and inevitably the lamest of lame ducks.
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Let’s all anxiously wait for 2014 for this agony to be over. It is India’s misfortune that 2014 still looks very, very far away.</div>
Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-75655147809991369152012-08-03T10:57:00.000+05:302012-08-18T10:59:04.291+05:30ARE WE HEADING AGAIN FOR THE SHAH BANO, BABRI MASJID ERA?<div style="text-align: justify;">
Ominous, objectionable, offensive, obnoxious and odious were five epithets used by some ‘secular’ friends when I tried to raise the issue. Another one said that my dislike and distaste for UPA-2 which he reluctantly shared has started colouring my perceptions and world view. Of course, there are many who say I am basically a closet Khakhi Chaddi masquerading as a liberal. So be it. But there are times when discomforting and disturbing questions have to be raised, no matter how unpalatable they sound. Otherwise, we are condemned to keep repeating history, never as a farce and always as a tragedy.
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Let’s start with some facts first. Barring some ‘stray’ incidents, India has been spared the specter of communal riots since 2002 – the one exception being Kandhamal in Orissa in 2008. A lot of us had started thinking – I now realise stupidly – that Hindus and Muslims had both realised that they were being used as cannon fodder by political and vested interests through ‘engineered’ communal riots. We thought, gone were the vitriolic and vicious days of Shah Bano and Babri Masjid. We thought we are maturing as a multi-ethnic, multi-religious society and democracy. Looks like we thought wrong.
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It started with Gopalgarh in Rajasthan where communal violence and police firing led to many deaths. Predictably and parrot like, we blamed the RSS types for it. Then communal violence erupted in Hyderabad, which has an inglorious history of communal violence. We again blamed the RSS types for it. Then came communal riots near Mathura in Uttar Pradesh soon after the ‘ultra-secular’ Samajwadi Party came to power. Incidentally, both Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh have Congress governments. Then came communal riots in Bareilly in Uttar Pradesh. And now we have communal riots in Congressruled Assam. I won’t be surprised to hear the likes of Digvijay Singh foaming at the mouth that the RSS types have instigated Bodo tribals, who are largely Hindu, to riot against illegal Bangladeshi immigrants, who are largely Muslim. In between all this, we have seen Digvijay Singh offer the moon, the sky and the stars to Muslim voters in the recently held assembly elections in UP. Of course, we had Salman Khurshid allegedly claiming that the Empress of India had actually cried after alleged terrorists were shot dead in the Batla House encounter. In between, we witnessed thundering silence from secular warriors and large sections of mainstream media when a so-called Grand Mufti of Kashmir ordered a Christian priest to appear in his “court” to answer charges that he was converting innocent young Muslims. The priest was subsequently arrested and locked up by the J&K government and since has been effectively banished from the valley. In between, we had the higher judiciary slamming the Andhra Pradesh government decision to “reserve” a sub-quota for Muslims within the “reserved” category as unconstitutional. And how can we forget the ultimate in between – the Draft Communal Violence Bill prepared by the deluded National Advisory Council that basically says that the majority community is automatically the offender and the accused if there is communal violence and the minority community automatically the victim. Now if this were law, the government would be duty-bound to arrest and prosecute Bodo tribals from various relief camps. Nobody seems to have the actual facts but even secular warriors are reluctantly admitting that both Bodo tribals and illegal Bangladeshi immigrants have been victims in massive numbers in this latest instance of history repeating itself as tragedy.
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You might ask: why I am sounding like Sadhvi Rithambara or as a propaganda tool for the RSS. Well, let me clarify. I think the RSS world view is totally wrong and unsuited to the Indian civilisational ethos. Till it retains its ideology of portraying Mulsims as the ‘other’, it will never gain the respect of a majority of Hindus. And I think, it is delusional to say that poor Mulsim peasants, artisans and workers are “invading” Assam as part of a grand ISI hatched conspiracy to conquer India. The primary reason for Bangladeshis entering India illegally is economic. You really need to check yourself into a lunatic asylum if you think a desperately poor Bangladeshi dying to feed his family is a Jihadi who has planned and plotted his invasion of India. It is like saying Biharis planned and plotted an invasion of Mumbai. Or to say that Spanish speaking people from Mexico and other Latin American countries have planned and plotted an invasion of Arizona, Texas and California so that they can reclaim the land their ancestors had lost to the White people. [American states like California and Texas were actually provinces of Mexico for hundreds of years before they became part of the United States.] But let us not forget: identity does play a part. Immigrants have been known to cheer Mexico in Texas and California when the Mexican team beats the American team in soccer. Some of my friends there tell me that immigrants often say that what the Whites captured through guns and subterfuge will be recaptured through demographics as Spanish speaking Catholics eventually outnumber the White Anglo Saxon Protestants. Something similar happens in Assam when illegal immigrants use religion and state complicity and duplicity to start thinking less as migrants in search of livelihood and more as a group whose faith and identity is in danger. Of course, by winking at illegal immigration, the Indian State is also sending a message to people in Bangladesh that they can come and get voter I-cards and grab land and opportunities. Would you – in a similar situation – forego the opportunity?
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So there I have confessed that a lot of RSS and VHP types are loonies. The problem is, I think a lot of our secular warriors are worse than loonies and even more dangerous. Their basic problem is selective secularism. They absolutely refuse to apply the same yardsticks to minorities; the yardsticks they use to condemn most Hindus as blood thirsty and bigoted oppressors of minorities. And they are so blinded by their hatred for the BJP and the likes of Narendra Modi that they prefer to look the other way when a Congress leader or government is culpable or when minorities, like fundamentalist Muslims in the Kashmir valley, want to impose Sharia. Or when fundamentalist Catholics persecute a rationalist for saying loudly that the Church is hoodwinking people. The real problem is: this kind of selective secularism makes the loony Hindutva types even stronger.
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That is where I come to those days of Shah Bano when thethen Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi used the brute majority of his party in the Parliament to overturn a Supreme Court verdict that said even Muslim women in India are entitled to alimony and maintenance after divorce. Not much had been heard about the VHP and Bajrang Dal before that. The so called Ram Mandir movement was still a fringe affair that an (L) December 6, 1992; Ayodhya: Hindu nationalists (supporters of VHP, Shiv Sena and BJP) tearing down the Babri Masjid mosque. In the nationwide riots caused, more than 2,000 people were killed; (R) August 18, 2010; Bareilly: Riots and curfews on a regular basis symbolise the fierce and noisy antagonism between the Hindus and the Muslims in this city (SMS your views with your name and topic to 0-9818101234) overwhelming majority of Hindus preferred to ignore. But what happened after Shah Bano? VHP, Bajrang Dal and Ram Janambhoomi suddenly became mainstream. Thousands of bureaucrats, armed forces personnel and others started loudly talking about Hindus getting second class treatment in their own country and started joining the BJP. All this actually helped the BJP capture power in Delhi. Of course, secular warriors say that all those bureaucrats and army officers who joined the BJP were actually bigots who came out of their closets. Many were, no doubt. But to say that a guy like Maj. Gen. (Retd.) B.C. Khandhuri – the man who has been responsible for the National Highways success – is also a closet bigot means you need psychiatric treatment. But then, there are secular warriors who firmly believe that a majority of voters in Gujarat who keep voting for Narendra Modi are bigots.
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My fear is very simple: the UPA regime has seen the writing on the wall. Suddenly, there is a real possibility that the Congress might face political exile for at least five years, if not more. Desperate situations call for desperate measures. And my fear is that this UPA regime will try damn hard to ‘scare’ minorities into voting for the Congress since they wouldn’t want a hostile government at the centre led by the BJP. It doesn’t matter at all, if most Muslims haven’t got any decent opportunities at anything since 1947. Lip service and scaremongering are deemed to be enough. What this kind of posturing does is to encourage fundamentalist Muslims as well as fundamentalist Hindus. If you think that is cock and bull, just try and answer why Hindu-Muslim riots are breaking out all over India since last year after almost a decade of ‘peace’? If you think only the RSS types are responsible, then why were the RSS types not successful for almost a decade and what has suddenly made them such a potent force?
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India, and the Congress are once again playing with fire. It will consume many more innocent Muslim and Hindu lives if we don’t stop this dangerous game right now. But then, if even the Partition and hundreds of riots after that have not taught us any lesson, I guess we Indians deserve the bleak future that awaits us.</div>
Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-44565832616842109262012-07-04T12:59:00.002+05:302012-07-04T12:59:51.909+05:30TONGUE IN CHEEK: HOW THE NAC CAN SAVE THE UPA IN 2014<div style="text-align: justify;">
The clock is ticking for the Congress and the UPA regime in India. Battered by scams and bruised by humiliating electoral defeats, the party knows that the party may be over. And that come 2014 and the Indian voter might deliver another resounding slap and perhaps even a few kicks for good measure. But then as they say, even a week is a long time in politics and desperate situations can be turned around with a bit of pluck and lots of luck. Pranab Mukherjee of course will lend more than a helping ‘Hand’. But Congress leaders know that Pranabda needs a good hand to be able to lend a helping hand. Personally, I have great admiration for the Congress, in particular for its ability to hang on to power. Since I think mere admiration may not be enough for the man ‘destined’ to be India’s Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi to actually become Prime Minister, let me do my patriotic bit by offering some free advice even to those who are beyond advice.
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All my suggestions revolve around that mind blowing invention of Sonia Gandhi called the National Advisory Council (NAC). That is because advice is best given to advisors. The NAC has been a pioneer of sorts when it comes to drafting laws that resemble Midsummer Night’s Dreams. The sheer range of their imagination defies imagination. So here are a few more laws that be drafted by the NAC to help Pranabda lend a helping hand to the “Hand” in 2014:
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The Motilal Nehru Bill on Lawyers and Law – Now, the great, great grandfather was a very famous and successful lawyer so it is befitting that this law be dedicated to his name. Once it is passed by the Parliament, this law will seek to monitor and regulate the behaviour of lawyers. Though the details of the proposed law are too complicated for simple folks like you to understand, let me summarise a few highlights so you get the gist and the drift. Lawyers will not be allowed to file any kind of PILs; only the aam aadmi will have that right. Lawyers like Manish Tiwari who also happens to be a Congress spokesperson can easily defend this provision and insist on idiotic TV shows that it is not at all targeted at Shanti Bhushan and Prashant Bhushan. Another lawyer P. Chidambaram who happens to be the Home Minister can always smile beatifically and insist in a stentorian tone that the provision has nothing to do with a pesky pest and fellow Tam- Brahm called Subramanyam Swamy. In fact, both the great lawyers can argue with flourish that the drivers of the Bhushans and Swamy will be entitled to file any number of PILs as long as the driver was never employed by another great lawyer named Abhishek Manu Singhvi. A corollary to this provision will be a stipulation that the drivers of any lawyer be perpetually banned from recording any secret and salacious footage.
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The Jawaharlal Nehru Bill for Chinese Checkers and Whispers: Since the great grandfather was a great champion of democracy and since his place is assured even in Chinese history, it is befitting that this proposed law be named after him. This law will mark a new high in the annals of free speech and freedom. This law came as an inspiration recently to the NAC members when they stumbled across a media report that said China has banned Bloomberg because it had the temerity and the effrontery to suggest that the family of the new leader of China is worth a few hundred million dollars. That kind of story is totally against free speech and freedom. Under this law, all scams worth more than one million dollars will be exempt from media scrutiny and activist interest. In the interests of free speech, the media and activists will be required to hold loud and meaningful debates in TV studios about constables and clerks who have been arrested on charges of corruption. To protect the ability of journalists to fearlessly pursue their profession without fear or favour, this law will also stipulate that journalists will voluntarily refrain from writing about fellow journalists who get too cosy with politicians and the powers that be. All journalists who fail to comply with this freedom enhancing provision of the Jawaharlal Nehru Act will be required to read the collected works of Arundhati Roy and make sense of it. One more pathbreaking provision of this new law will stipulate that all journalists who write something positive about Narendra Modi will be automatically deported to China where positive stories are better appreciated.
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The Indira Gandhi Bill for Family Planning: Since the grandmother symbolised the eternal Indian mantra that Family comes First, it is befitting that this new law be named after that great woman. Mind you, don’t start having naughty thoughts. Family Planning here is not the type of family planning that her great son Sanjay Gandhi encouraged fellow Indians to practice with a little help from cops and that fancy thing balled sterilisation. Family planning here basically means that Indians will be better prepared to prepare for a rosy future for the families after this new law comes into effect. Shorn of the legal jargon and bureaucratic mumbo jumbo, this law will stipulate that it will be mandatory for the sons and daughters of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs to contest elections to the same seats once the parents call it a day or kick thebucket. The ungrateful and unpatriotic progeny who refuse to comply with this historic provision will be required to draft affidavits for patriotic Indians like Teesta Setalvad. Of course, accidents of history may lead to some Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs not being able to produce any progeny. In that case, the NAC will be authorised to ‘Hand’ pick a nephew or niece who fits the Bill. There is another magnificent provision in this law. Elections will continue to be held repeatedly till stupid voters see wisdom and vote unanimously for the son, daughter, niece or nephew. As a result, corruption will be completely eliminated from the country since there will be no further need to organise black money to fight elections. In any case, under the new Jawaharlal Nehru Act, all deals worth more than one million dollars will be exempt from media and activist scrutiny.
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The Sanjay Gandhi Act on Gangs and Gangsters: Since it was the uncle who took historic steps to curb the menace of goons and save Indian democracy during the Emergency, it is befitting that this new law be named after the illustrious leader. This law will forever eliminate the danger of goons and gangsters from Indian society. All goons who are considered history shelters with a track record of senseless violence will be required to join the Youth Congress and stay there till they are 75 years old. If they manage to live that long, some of these patriotic Indians will be eligible to become Cabinet ministers. All patriotic Indians who have stolen millions and millions will be given the option of joining the DMK. Pickpockets will have the option of joining the RJD. This historic new law will have huge benefits which simple folks like you cannot comprehend. Since expenditures on policemen, courts, police stations and jails will be virtually eliminated, the NAC will be able to dream up new projects and schemes for the aam aadmi.
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The Rajiv Gandhi Naani Yaad Dila Denge Act: Since the father immortalised the term “Naani Yaad Dila Denge” along with something called Bofors, it is befitting that this wonderful law be named after him. This is quite a straightforward law and will help India rebuild the great institution called the Indian family. Any Indian who even mistakenly says or writes anything critical about either India or the Family (It’s the same thing really) will be required to spend quality time with maternal grandmothers. This way, the institution called the family will be saved, the Family will not be embarrassed and secular warriors like Mani Shankar Aiyar will launch a series of television soap operas where the arch villain will be Narendra Modi and his arch henchman will be Baba Ramdev. Anna Hazare too will put in guest appearances.
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I am convinced this new set of laws will ensure that the Indian voter does not even accidentally dispose what God has proposed – that the Yuvraj will lead India to new heights of glory.</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-19668042471851757282012-06-01T09:53:00.003+05:302012-06-01T09:53:48.981+05:30EIGHT YEARS OF UPA AND EIGHT & A HALF LESSONS<div style="text-align: justify;">
Most newspapers, magazines and television channels have been spouting wisdom and much more about 3 years of the current UPA regime. I think, it would be more honest to look at 8 years of the UPA. After all, it was in 2004 that Dr Manmohan Singh was appointed (mark my words: appointed, not elected) the Prime Minister of India. The composition of the alliance may have changed, like the Left no longer being a part of the dispensation. But the core of the UPA has remained the same over the last 8 years.
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Before I write about the eight and half lessons that we Indians can draw from 8 years of the UPA regime, allow me to describe the two principal leaders of UPA. First, Sonia Gandhi. No matter what her critics say, the fact is that she has revived the Congress when it looked like all was lost and displayed more political astuteness and maturity than most other leaders. Then Manmohan Singh. No one can doubt his personal integrity and the wealth of experience he has as an administrator. Besides, no one should even begin to doubt their commitment to India.
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And yet, things are in a sorry shape and the remarkable story of the rise and rise of India is now becoming one of gloom, despair and anger. Very clearly, something has gone horribly wrong. I don’t need to bore you by recounting statistics to show how badly things have gone wrong. It is crystal clear that the two top leaders of the UPA and their advisors must do something drastic, and something soon. Otherwise, the India growth story and the UPA will both be history in 2014. But before they do anything, here are eight and half lessons they can draw upon.
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Lesson number one is perversely biblical – the road to hell is paved with noble intentions. Sonia Gandhi gathered together a band of highly educated, articulate and committed individuals and formed the National Advisory Council. No one doubts the sincerity of the NAC members and their noble intentions. After all, who in her right mind would refuse to accept inclusive growth as an ideal? And we all applauded initially when a landmark legislation like RTI was passed. We were less enthusiastic, but still reluctantly supportive, when it came to the NREGA. We wondered how the Food Security act would be implemented in corrupt India. We shook our heads in wonder when the Forest Act was being foisted. And the logical climax was when the horror called the Communal Violence Bill was midwifed. These noble intentions will rip apart the very fabric of Indian society. I am all for resurrecting Mother Teresa and letting her run India. But is that how you run a complex nation in the 21st century?
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At least the jholawala NAC types look suitably humble, if infuriatingly sanctimonious. Lesson number two is about the so called political deal makers of the UPA, who have been insufferably smug and arrogant when it comes to dealing with opponents. Most of us remember how Congress spokesman Manish Tiwari had to go quiet for months after heaping abuse on Anna Hazare. We forget how UPA managers simply did not bother to consult any opposition party on how to tackle the movement growing around the Lokpal Bill. And do remember how leader of the opposition Sushma Swaraj protested that her opinions were rudely ignored when it came to appointing a new CVC. It was only when the Supreme Court cancelled the choice of the UPA that its arrogance was exposed. Confidence is great, insouciance is maybe ok, but arrogance usually comes back to haunt you.
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The third lesson that the UPA could have learnt was from the failure of the NDA in managing allies. It was the loss of “allies” like National Conference, AGP, Telugu Desam, BJD, Trinamool Congress and the DMK that cost the NDA both power and a possible future. And yet, UPA managers have persisted with the folly of either treating allies disdainfully or bowing and scrapping to their whims and fancies. It is only the lure of power and the fear of elections that is keeping the allies in the fold. The moment they sense that the BJP – despite its suicidal tendencies – is going to benefit big time from a backlash against this regime, the allies will scatter like a flock of birds. Strangely, ally management still seems to be a huge headache for the UPA despite 8 uninterrupted years in power.
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Even with disgruntled allies, the Congress and the UPA could theoretically use a trump card called populism; the way NREGA and farm loan waivers were used by UPA 1. Only a fool will say that populism never pays electoral dividends. And yet, basic economic theory teaches us something called the law of diminishing marginal utility. A voter will never mind a sop, but the more sops you throw at her, the less attractive their marginal utility. If you travelled in small town and rural India in 2008, there seemed to be genuine admiration for the NREGA. Today, you won’t find that kind of enthusiasm for Food Security and Right to Education. Hell, the voters are so angry, that they will take the sops and vote against you anyway. As the UPA strategists brainstorm about a wave of sops in the run up to 2014, they do seem to be ignoring this lesson number five.
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Lesson number six is inextricably linked to the previous one – there really is no such thing called a free lunch. Someone, at some time or the other – often sooner rather than later – has to pay for it. Thanks to the initiatives of the jholawala NAC members and also thanks to vested interests, India is awash with subsidies of all kinds. We have LPG subsidies in excess of Rs.20,000 crores enjoyed mostly by middle class India. We have fertilizer subsidies in excess of Rs.80,000 crores enjoyed mostly by rich farmers and fertilizer companies. Welfare schemes have been launched by the UPA as if it is a medieval monarchy that is pleased to share a bit of the royal treasury with its restless subjects. No amount of common sense argument has convinced the jholawalas that virtually all this money is lining up the pockets of corrupt middlemen, bureaucrats and politicians. They want even more money to be thrown at the subjects. And why would vested interests voluntarily surrender subsidies? Something has to give. And it has started giving. Deficit levels in the economy are reaching alarming proportions. Perversely, this will result in even more inflation and even more misery for the poor in whose name the UPA claims to rule.
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The UPA could have gotten away with ignoring lesson number six if lesson number seven had not kicked into play. And that is about how bad and arbitrary policies can kill growth. Let’s take the aviation sector. By 2005, it did appear as if an average Indian can actually take a flight. And then started a slew of arbitrary policies. Rules were rigged and transparent policy making was thrown in the dustbin. Suddenly, you find that the whole sector is in a mess and that airfares and stupid airport charges have gone up so high that flying is once again a dream for the average Indian. Then look at how the one great infrastructural leap of India – the highway modernization and construction project launched by the NDA government – has been killed by arbitrary policy making. And who can forget the mess that is the telecom sector today? Discretionary power and arbitrary policies have become the norm. Today, you ban cotton exports; tomorrow you resume them. Today you announce this rule; tomorrow you scrap it. The results are obvious. From about 9% a year, GDP growth rate is slipping to less than 7%. This is bad news not just for every Indian, but particularly so for the jholawalas. Lower growth rates means lower tax collections and lesser money to throw at subjects. And blaming the crisis in Greece for this mess is like blaming Alexander the Great for letting future invaders realize how easy it is to invade and plunder India!
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And that brings us to the final lesson number 8 – the voter is not a fool. Look at the facts. The UPA lost miserably in Bihar. It won West Bengal, but thanks mainly to Mamata Bannerjee. It barely won a majority in Kerala despite an unpopular Left government. It was decimated in Tamil Nadu. It was decimated in Uttar Pradesh. It just about managed to form a government in Uttarakhand despite massive incumbency. And the Akali Dal-BJP combine was swept back to power in Punjab. In a few weeks time, bye lections to 18 assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh will deliver another body blow. Arresting Jagan Mohan Reddy is not going to change that. The bells are tolling. But is anybody in the UPA listening?
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I speak about eight and a half lessons. The half is about that half empty glass – or should I say petrol tank?</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-30782538011329410192012-05-05T09:54:00.000+05:302012-05-05T11:31:15.931+05:30INDIA’S SORROW: CRONY SOCIALISM & CRONY SECULARISM<div style="text-align: justify;">
There is a chilling story in our sister publication <i>The Sunday Indian</i> from Srinagar that tells a lot about how Indian intellectuals, journalists and pundits practice secularism. Kaiser Bhatt runs a school for kids called Orange International Playschool in the outskirts of Srinagar. In April, 2012, he invited some Muslim friends from Malaysia to visit his school. They sipped tea, exchanged pleasantries and soon left. Within minutes, the playschool was surrounded by an angry mob that had gathered in response to a rumour that the playschool was actually a ‘Christian’ outfit and that the visiting Malaysians were Christian missionaries. Scared stiff, Kaiser desperately pleaded with his Malaysian friends to come back to scotch the rumours. The Malaysians returned and were forced by the mob to ‘prove’ that they were Muslims. Only then did the violent mob disperse. But Kaiser’s troubles were not over as worried parents wanted to withdraw their kids. Worse, school staff were reluctant to come to the school since they were scared a mob will pounce on them. <br /><br />Sensing financial ruin, Kaiser pleaded with Hurriyat leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq to come to his rescue. The separatist leader ‘pronounced’ that the playschool is Muslim enough for parents and the staff not to be worried. After assuring angry Muslims of the neighbourhood that Orange International Playschool (<i>meanwhile, the playschool plastered its walls with Quranic verses</i>) was not a Christian conspiracy, the ‘separatist’ and ‘spiritual’ leader told <i>The Sunday Indian</i>, “We have strong evidence to suggest that Christian missionaries are working to convert Kashmiri Muslims using unfair means”. In November, 2011, a Christian priest Chandar Mani Khanna was accused of proselytizing. Someone called the Grand Mufti of Kashmir ‘summoned’ the priest for interrogation and ordered him to cease and desist. The priest was arrested and allegedly beaten up and tortured and remained locked up for about 20 days. Of course, he was then ‘banished’ from the valley. The so-called Grand Mufti now routinely ‘summons’ alleged offenders to his Sharia court. <br /><br />In case you don’t know or have deliberately chosen to forget, the Kashmir valley is overwhelmingly Muslim majority (<i>most Kashmiri Hindus were forced out of the valley in the 1990s and now live in wretched refugee camps</i>) with Hindus, Christians and Sikhs being insignificant minorities. In case you have chosen to forget, India’s secular warriors ceaselessly cry themselves hoarse – while raving and ranting against all things and symbols Hindu – that it is the duty of the majority Hindus of India to protect its secular identity and Constitution. Very unpalatable question that even those who have not been blinded by Marxism and secular fundamentalism feel uncomfortable about asking: where are the loud ‘secular’ voices when Christians are being so ruthlessly targeted in the only Muslim majority state in India? What happened to the vocal chords of Jholawala Leftists who never give up an opportunity of pointing out how intolerant, obscurantist and ‘fascist’ Hindus are when it comes to dealing with minorities? Would they have adopted a self imposed vow of silence if Christian priests were similarly harassed in Gujarat? <br /><br />The only possible answer is: our secular warriors are frauds, plain and simple. And Indian media has since long lost its ability to call a spade a spade, even at the cost of being politically correct. What amazes me is the sheer hypocrisy of these frauds. Ask them to condemn what is happening in the Kashmir valley and you will get a torrent of Marxist dialectics about how India was never a nation and how we must respect its ethnic, linguistic and religious diversity. And imagine what will happen if another pet project of the secular brigade, the Communal Violence Bill becomes law. Under this Bill, the majority community is automatically the guilty party in case of a communal dispute. So will Muslims be the guilty party in a dispute between them and Christians in the Kashmir valley? You must be crazy if you think that will happen. <br /><br />So much for fraud secularism. The funny thing is the same set of intellectuals and journalists shamelessly encourage crony socialism, just as they shamelessly encourage crony secularism. Over the last two years, I have be- come sick and tired of reading glorified PR stories about how great, wonderful and magnificent the new Delhi airport is. Literally hundreds of articles have appeared in the print media and even news channels have done TV programmes extolling the spanking new Delhi airport (<i>Incidentally, all these intellectuals and journalists went mysteriously quiet in August 2011 when a thundershower literally blew away this so-called marvel of technology and aesthetics built by the Andhra based GMR group. Yes, just one bout of heavy rains and this world class airport completely collapsed!</i>) <br /><br />In case you don’t know or have deliberately chosen to forget, the GMR group, promoted by G. M. Rao outbid the Mittals and Ambanis for the contract to revamp the Delhi airport. A few years after it won the contract, it imposed a ‘fee’ of Rs.200 on domestic passengers and Rs.1,200 on international passengers because GMR claimed that it had to ‘tax’ gullible passengers to remain viable. GMR claimed that actual project costs were far higher than originally estimated. Subsequently, the Supreme Court ruled that the ‘tax’ being collected by GMR from passengers was illegal and ordered a refund. Don’t waste your time guessing whether the refund happened or not. And now, the airports regulator has allowed GMR to hike fee by about 350%. This has made Delhi one of the most expensive in the world. There were some protests and complaints for a while and that was it. Not one of the intellectuals and journalists bothered to ask how GMR was being allowed to get away with this kind of brazen behaviour. Equally shocking, the TV channel <i>Headlines Today</i> did an investigative story in 2011 which exposed how construction activities of GMR were making the Delhi airport a sitting duck for terror attacks. Nothing much was heard about it after that. <br /><br />But then crony socialism, like crony secularism, runs in our blood as another example will show, In 2002, power distribution in Delhi was privatised. One of the key promises made was that power supply would be reliable and economical since private operators will drastically reduce transmission and distribution (<i>T&D</i>) losses (<i>most of T&D losses in India are downright power theft and robbery</i>). Ten years later, the private operator of East Delhi, the area represented by Sheila Dikhsit in the assembly and her son Sandeep Dikhsit in the Lok Sabha, admitted that it was not entirely successful reducing T&D losses as planned and promised. What happens? The regulator allows this private company to charge a higher rate from consumers! Common sense says that private companies must take risks and be ready for either profits or losses depending on the market situation and the ability of their management. Nowhere has it been said that private companies be rewarded for incompetence. But as the GMR-Delhi airport and the power supply to East Delhi examples show, crony socialism in India ensures we reward incompetence. <br /><br />With Indians like this, does India really need any enemies? Fortunately, these crony secularists and socialists cannot destroy the Idea of India despite their best ‘Fifth Column’ efforts because most Indians – Hindus, Christians, Muslims and Sikhs – prefer common sense over fraudulent and malicious intentions masquerading as scholarship. Were it not so, either Uma Bharti or Salmaan Khurshid would have been elected Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh! Amen…</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-59209579004115923662012-04-12T09:55:00.001+05:302012-04-12T09:59:35.900+05:30WHY IS INDIA OBSESSED WITH NUMBERS?<div style="text-align: justify;">Sachin Tendulkar has achieved a milestone that will be impossible – or extremely difficult at best – for cricketers in near future to surpass. His 100th ton in International cricket will be remembered. It took him under 22 years (<span style="font-style: italic;">since he scored his first ton at Old Trafford in August 1990</span>) to achieve the feat. The #1 reason why it will not be an easy hill to climb is because these days, internationally, cricketing careers don’t last more than 10 or 15 years anyway. So, the darling of Indian sport has made us proud again. But his feat also signals how we Indians are obsessed with numbers and choose freely to miss the big picture.<br /><br />Fans, commentators, the media and every aam hindustani had been waiting for the hour when the Little Master would raise his bat to thank the heavens as he always does. It took Sachin 369 days to create history. And when he did that evening of March 16 on foreign soil (<span style="font-style: italic;">at Mirpur, Bangladesh</span>), suddenly Indians forgot the humiliation that its cricket team had suffered in the past 369 days during away games! Battered in England (<span style="font-style: italic;">we lost by a margin of 0-8; all formats combined</span>), cleaned up in Australia <span style="font-style: italic;">(we handed over the Border-Gavaskar Test trophy 0-4 and were knocked out of the Commonwealth Bank ODI Series</span>) and pushed aside in Bangladesh (<span style="font-style: italic;">defending champion India was knocked out, and all because we lost to Bangladesh – the day Sachin made his 100th 100!</span>). Minus the tour of the Caribbean, India’s overseas record during the 12 months we spent anxiously to see Sachin’s next 100, stood at 6-18. Translation: We lost 75% of matches played during the time!<br /><br />Move to pure business. We’re obsessed about Indians making it to the World’s list of billionaires every year. This year, 48 Indians (<span style="font-style: italic;">with a total worth of $194.6 billion</span>) have been included in the list of 1,226 billionaires around the world. This group with a headcount of under 50 is important, for it represents how proud we are about out country’s wealth, and more so because ‘India’ – the country – today represents 3.9% of the world’s billionaire count and 4.3% of its wealth. They are definitely more important because these billionaires make up 0.000003% of the Indian population! Here’s the big picture – as per World Bank, 41.6% of Indians live below the poverty line, while UNDP says this BPL figure stands at 37.2%. According to the UNDP–Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative Report, 8 states in India (Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, MP, Orissa, Rajasthan, UP and WB) account for 421 million poor – more than that present in the 26 poorest nations of Africa combined (<span style="font-style: italic;">410 million</span>)! There is more to the big picture. According to the newly defined poverty line by the Planning Commission, 33% of people in rural and 21% in urban India are poor. This ‘best estimate’ – which makes a mockery of what could be called the ‘rock-bottom of existence’ for Indians – claims that if you earn Rs.28 while living in Delhi or Mumbai, you are not poor. So here’s the deal. Catch a bus to go to work and the minimum you have to spend is Rs.10 both ways, in the National Capital Region. Along similar lines, a metro ride would cost Rs.16 both ways at the least. So a lower middle class India living in New Delhi catches a bus or a metro, and at the end of the day, if he has Rs.12 – Rs.18 to spare to buy himself food, water, clothes, medicine, shelter, he isn’t poor! Folks, a group of 48 billionaires makes you thump your chest. But if you’re happy about India shining yet, you are missing the bigger frame. India accounts for 36.3% of the poor and 33% of malnourished children in the World (<span style="font-style: italic;">UNHDR data</span>). And in our country, where IPL players are bought for millions, BPL families are left to starve! For those obsessed with a handful of Indians making it to the glory list, that is the big picture.<br /><br />We like to discuss how Akshay Kumar became the 2-year-in-a-row highest tax payer in Bollywood (<span style="font-style: italic;">Rs.200 million each year</span>), why Ravindra Jadeja attracted the highest bid in IPL 5 (<span style="font-style: italic;">$2 million from CSK</span>), when the Sensex will breach the 20,000 mark again, what will remain of Kingfisher Airlines which is operating only 30% of its fleet and reeling under a mountain of debt of over $1 billion, and whether the new coal scam of Rs.10.67 trillion – which is the big daddy of both the CWG (<span style="font-style: italic;">Rs.700 billion</span>) and 2G (<span style="font-style: italic;">Rs.1.76 trillion</span>) scams – will leave the ruling government searching for answers. We crazy-fornumbers Indians will only get to see the real picture, if we can answer some questions to ourselves in an honest voice: Have we paid taxes honestly as Akshay perhaps did? Has match-fixing left the game of IPL untouched? Forget the 20,000 mark, has SEBI done enough to broom out the clans of the Harshad Mehtas and the Ketan Parekhs? And to talk about scams rocking the government, are we voting the right people to power – those who can really make an impact by influencing policy changes?<br /><br />Over the years, you would have often heard someone marvel over how we add more number of mobile users each month than the total population of Nokia’s motherland Finland! Years back, when we crossed the 100 million mark in the mobile subscriber base, we became proud as a nation that was fast advancing in the field of telephony and modern modes of communication. Even today, we talk about this cellular user base rising by over 9 million each month (<span style="font-style: italic;">addition of 9.88 million units in January 2012</span>). We are sitting on a total of 936 million mobile connections today – I can imagine what kind of celebration and back patting will happen when we cross the billion mark. And to imagine that despite being so proud of our 2G numbers, the fact that comes to our mind when we talk about 2G is the scam.<br /><br />China is another number-laden topic for Indians. The elephant versus the dragon is quite a comparison. Our GDP grows by 7-8%, and that of China grows by 8-10% – we’re only talking about the day when our growth will overtake their’s. Maybe that will happen in 2020, or 2050, or maybe never. Truth is – there are better numbers for the sake of comparison that we can attempt to digest. Here are some to give you a live telecast of the India versus China cage match. In India, life expectancy at birth is 8% lower than in China. In this regard, China is 36 years ahead of us (<span style="font-style: italic;">Source: UN, ILO, World Bank, IEA, CEIC & IMF</span>). Adult literacy rate in China is 31% higher than in India. (<span style="font-style: italic;">China is ahead by 25 years.</span>) A Chinese consumes 5 times more electricity than an Indian does. (<span style="font-style: italic;">China is ahead by 18 years.</span>) 32% of Chinese use the Internet as compared to 9% in India. And the higher education enrolment percentage in China (<span style="font-style: italic;">25%</span>) is almost 100% more than that in India (<span style="font-style: italic;">13%</span>). (<span style="font-style: italic;">China is ahead by 5 years in both parameters.</span>) So the next time you hear someone talk about India overtaking China only because there is 1% difference or so left to cover in terms of GDP growth, do show them the fine print.<br /><br />I am an Indian, and a proud one at that. And so like you my dear reader, I confess that I am addicted to numbers. I especially use them while voicing my opinions to convince others. 80 times have I used numbers in this piece to convince you that you, a proud Indian, are obsessed with numbers and often miss the woods for the trees. In the end, you may choose to hold on to your number-preaching game, or agree with me and start reading beyond the digits. The least you could do is learn from the Indian government. Well, full credits to them for teaching us ordinary citizens that the term “reducing the poverty line” was supposed to be taken literally...</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-83048928738282504932012-03-02T09:59:00.001+05:302012-03-02T09:59:43.471+05:30THE SOFTEST STATE IN THE WORLD<div style="text-align: justify;">Two recent incidents involving two European countries illustrate how India handles the World and how the World at large perceives India. Some time back, two soldiers of the Italian armed forces opened fire on an unarmed fishing boat off the coast of Kerala, killing two fishermen. The captain of their ship and the soldiers insist the act is 'not' murder but self defence, since they thought the innocent fishermen were pirates. Till their arrogance and nonchalance became difficult even for normally servile Indians to handle, the murderers and their captain refused to allow Indian policemen even to board the ship for investigations.<br /><br />About nine months before this happened, an Indian NRI couple Anurup and Sagarika Bhattacharya, working and living in Norway got a taste of European style welfare state authoritarianism. Welfare authorities of Norway accused the couple of not looking aft er their three year-old and one year-old child ‘properly’ and literally snatched them away to be placed in a State-run welfare home. Most of us in India were not even aware of this shocking violation of human rights of an Indian family!<br /><br />Now look at how Italy reacted aft er its soldiers killed two fishermen in cold blood and how India reacted aft er authorities in Norway made life a living hell for an Indian couple. Within days of the firing incident, top officials of Italy’s foreign ministry descended on Delhi to secure the release of the soldiers. One demented Indian Christian who is now a Cardinal of the Roman Catholic Church decided to interfere on behalf of the Italian soldiers. So heavy and so sustained has been the pressure from Italy in this matter that even though the soldiers have been arrested by the Indian police, they happily smoke cigarettes in custody and have pizza delivered to satisfy their taste buds. Don’t be surprised at all if the two Italian soldiers wing their way back home aft er enjoying a ‘holiday’ in God’s Own Country because of some back room deals.<br /><br />In sharp contrast, Indian authorities didn’t even bother to lift a finger to help when authorities in Norway actually kidnapped two young children of an Indian couple in May 2011. The poor couple fought a lonely and losing battle all the way. [Imagine the plight of a mother losing her three and one year-old kids in such a manner in a distant land with nobody to help.] It is only recently when the grandparents of the children started a protest against this barbaric action in front of the Embassy of Norway that the Indian media and authorities started paying attention. Even then, Norway is refusing to budge and refusing to give the children back to their parents citing Norwegian law. Perhaps one uncle of the kids will now get their custody.<br /><br />What is the message that is sent across the world by these two separate incidents? It is simple, India and Indians are fair game for bullies. The World already knows that the Indian State is so soft that it can be melted and pasteurised. That perception will become even stronger aft er these two incidents. No wonder India is the only major country in Asia that has been repeatedly invaded, ravaged and pillaged throughout history. And we talk of becoming a 21st century Superpower, eh?</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-71321815409718290082012-02-17T11:24:00.002+05:302012-02-17T11:27:12.474+05:30OUR STUPID OBSESSION WITH NARENDRA MODI<div style="text-align: justify;">The countdown to a macabre anniversary has begun and the media has already started reliving those gory moments and days. Even if you want to, there is simply no way you can avoid reliving the horror. Yes, I am talking about the burning of the S-6 coach of the Sabarmati Express – in which 'Kar Sevaks' were travelling from Ayodhya – at the Godhra station on February 27, 2002, and the subsequent riots in Gujarat that led to the brutal deaths of about 2,000 human beings, most of them Muslims. There is little doubt now that a lot of those killings were conducted in an organised manner and the state government failed to protect innocent citizens. Of course, I must say that the manner in which our secular fundamentalists use the word 'Genocide' to describe the 2002 Gujarat riots have a deeply perverted sense of history as well as the English language. I find it stranger still when the same folk insist that the burning alive of 59 children, women and men inside a train compartment was merely an accident, or a conspiracy hatched by Hindu fanatics to provide ammunition for the pogrom (<span style="font-style: italic;">there goes another word</span>) against Muslims in Gujarat.<br /><br />Since 2002, no other man or woman in contemporary Indian history has been demonised the way Narendra Modi has been. And as the 10th anniversary of Gujarat riots approaches, you can bet many <span style="font-style: italic;">pundits</span> will dish out more armchair psychiatric nonsense while claiming to analyse the psyche of a ‘mass murderer’ (<span style="font-style: italic;">there goes another word</span>) like Narendra Modi. The more polite and possibly more objective ones will say how the taint of the Gujarat riots will prevent Modi from being able to play a more effective and meaningful role in national politics and even in BJP (<span style="font-style: italic;">God knows how desperately the BJP needs a national leader at this juncture</span>). The more ideologically perverted types will continue to declare him <span style="font-style: italic;">persona non grata</span>. By the way, our Indian comrades managed to convince Capitalist and Imperialist America to deny a visa to Modi. But I guess the comrades either forgot to ask or failed in their attempts to persuade Communist China to deny a visa to Modi! I think such small ironies of life entirely escape our Indian Left ies who still think Stalin and Mao were 20th century versions of God.<br /><br />So Modi as <span style="font-style: italic;">Ravana</span> will become the leitmotif for India in the coming weeks. But don’t you honestly think we are going too far in our obsession to demonise the man? And that we are belittling ourselves and India in the bargain? I wont repeat stuff about how our media conveniently ignores the massacre of Sikhs in 1984 and the myriad massacres of Muslims in the (<span style="font-style: italic;">then</span>) Bombay, in Bhagalpur, in Nellie, in Meerut and many other places in which surely Narendra Modi was not the ‘mastermind’ (<span style="font-style: italic;">there goes another word</span>).<br /><br />But I will ask you this if you honestly believe in the Indian Constitution and the Supreme Court. The latter has relentlessly pursued the Gujarat riots cases, including transferring them to other states so that the killers could be punished and the victims get justice. So can we allow the Supreme Court to finish its job before we pass verdicts? Of course, if you are convinced that Maoists are Gandhians with Guns, you probably are convinced that the Supreme Court of India is a conspiracy hatched by Goebbels.</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-80274657671728713252012-01-28T11:58:00.000+05:302012-01-28T11:59:23.176+05:30Stop Abusing Laxman and Dravid<div align="justify">I know it is time for all and sundry to throw brickbats and worse at our star batsmen after the double debacle, first a 4-0 whitewash in England and then a repeat 4-0 whitewash in Australia. The second one is even more shocking because betting syndicates as well as former Australian players had put money on India winning the series. The world of tweets, blogs and the net is awash with scorn and abuse for V.V. S Laxman and Rahul Dravid and muted scorn for Sachin Tendulkar. Dhoni, of course is suddenly transformed from an all conquering hero and India's best captain ever to a fool. And Virender Sehwag, he was always irresponsible and casual anyway, isn't it? The less said about the BCCI the better. But most of the abuse seems to be reserved for the golden trio of Tendulkar, Dravid and Laxman. It seems they have become public enemies of India. This is a peculiar habit we Indians have, reflected in all it's glory in the Indian media: praise a bunch of sky highs when they do well and destroy them when they do badly.<br /><br />Come on guys, by angrily abusing these batsmen, please do not forget the fact they are-along with Saurav Ganguly- arguably the four best batsmen to have ever played for India in recent memory. I am not talking about subjective judgements; my contention is based on facts and statistics. The worst of the lot is Ganguly who has a test average of about 43. He is followed by Laxman with an average of about 46; in fact, take out these two disastrous series and his batting average is close to 50. Dravid has an average of about 52 and Tendulkar has an average of about 55. All have played more than 100 test matches. If you think you cannot be world class and yet maintain such averages over such a long period of time, you must be either ignorant or hopelessly prejudiced or both. Of the players gone by before them, only Sunil Gavaskar has an average of over 50. Dilip Vengsakar too played more than 100 matches and averages about 42. We all very fondly remember G.R Vishwanath for his wrists stroke play and genius. He averages just about 42. Even the doughty and never say die fighter Moninder Amarnath averages about 42. And Ravi Shastri, who spouts such wisdom from the commentary box has an a erase of about 35. The only batsman who has done better than Ganguly is Azzharuddin who averages about 45 in 99 test matches. He couldn't play 100 test matches because he was sacked for alleged match fixing.<br /><br />Today, you are abusing such great batsmen because of two failures in two away series. Let's go back to 1983 when India won the World Cup. Soon after that, an Indian test team comprising of the likes of Gavaskar, Amarnath, Shastri, Kapil and Vengsarkar was whitewashed 5-0 in a test series in India. Yes, in India. The West Indies team was followed by an England team that comfortably beat India. In fact, before India under Azzaruddin beat England 3-0 at home in 1993, a victory for the Indian team even in Indian soil and 'favourable' home conditions was a rare, rare thing.<br /><br />And even as you are abusing, do look at Ricky Ponting. Before this series, he looked totally down and out, having failed to score a century in more than 2 years. For three years, he averaged well below 30. And yet the punter was backed by sensible Australians and how he has come roaring back. Okay, even if you think that the best years of our batsmen are over, at least say he and thank you for all the entertainment and joy you provided us over the years. And let's say it with grace. Surely Laxman, Dravid and Tendulkar deserve at least that much, if not much more?</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-70892352951501143052012-01-27T15:40:00.000+05:302012-01-27T15:41:54.856+05:30India's Possible Folly in Iran<div style="text-align: justify;">Now that Saddam Hussein is long gone and Iraq has been 'gifted' a democracy(what a travesty of that word) by United States and it's allies, the next 'rogue' regime to be targeted is Iran. Just recently, following the for steps of the US, the 27 member European Union has announced that it will virtually enforce an embargo on purchase of oil from Iran beginning July 1. The ostensible reason is to pressurize Iran to halt its nuclear weapons program and turn it back. The real reason of course is regime change. Ever since citizens of Iran overthrew an American imposed dictator Reza Pahlvi in an Islamic Revolution in 1979, Uncle Sam has been an implacable foe of Iran. Do remember, when Iran fought a war with Iraq under Saddam in the 1980s, it was America and Saudi Arabia that helped Iraq with money as well as arms.<br /><br />Now, America and its allies are applying relentless pressure on India to toe the sanctions line against Iran. On the face of it, that might look innocuous. India imports PIL worth about $ 12 billion a year from Iran. Back channel diplomacy seems to be promising to make up that shortfall through the good offices of key American ally Saudi Arabia. Of course, with a total annual oil bill well in excess of $ 100 billion, that shortfall doesn't look menacing. And then again, many in Delhi are still so much in love with the delusion called an Indo-American alliance to check China, that they would urge India to do anything keep Uncle Sam happy.<br /><br />But India must not support this gang up against Iran. It is in India's long term strategic interest to refuse to toe the American, Israeli and Saudi line. Two things must motivate Indian policy makers when they think about Iran. The first is the all important need to secure future energy supplies. The second is to not needlessly give ammunition to Jihadists with their propaganda that India is against the Muslim community. On both these counts, the interests of America and India-contrary to what many think- are actually diverging instead of converging. It would be stupid of India to rely on an unreliable ally like America for its future energy security. It must learn a lesson or two from China. Look at what happened when America and its allies decided that some countries like Myanmar and Sudan had gone rogue. Besotted with both idealism and a naive belief in America, India avoided building bridges with the two countries. China went merrily ahead and is now in an unviable position of having massive supplies of energy and other natural resources. It is only now that India is trying to play catch up with China in Myanmar. Even in Central Asian countries, China has marched way ahead in securing future energy supplies even as Indian policy makers waffled, hemmed and hawed. Look at this way, India is today staring at an annual trade deficit of $ 200 billion caused mostly by oil. Targeting Iran will inevitably mean a big rise in oil prices and a big rise in the trade deficit. Is India- with just about $ 300 billion in foreign currency reserves and a falling Rupee in a position to afford such nonsense?<br /><br />Now look at recent history to figure out what will happen even if India goes the American line. In 2005, when middle class India was basking in the glory of a historic nuclear deal with America, our policy wonks did something incredibly stupid. As a gesture of goodwill towards Uncle Sam and with the hope that America will support India when it comes to our own vital interests. India voted for IAEA sanctions against Iran in 2005. The result, a lot of deals being worked by business houses like the Tatas and Ambanis with Iran went up in smoke. And what did India get in return? American didn't even supply crucial information obtained from David Coleman Headley about the 26/11 Terror attacks. It made a few polite noises but Hafeez Sayid of LET continues to openly preach Jihad against India. Of course, the Americans smoked out Osama Bin Laden and blithely killed him by openly violating Pakistani sovereignty. India is still twiddling it's thumbs. But the real shocker for Imdia is the manner in which America is negotiating with the Taliban even as it prepares to exit Afghanistan. Uncle Sam is simply shrugging off protests from India that letting the Taliban sneak in through the back door will be disastrous.<br /><br />And don't blame America. It is doing what it thinks is best for its own strategic interests; others be damned. China too is openly saying that it will continue its 'good relations' with the Iranian regime. Isn't it time we in India too woke up and smelled the coffee. You don't use tools like hope and goodwill and hope while pursuing national interests. Indira Gandhi had shown us long ago that you need nerves of steel, and a backbone.<br /></div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-16656336659141502372012-01-25T14:24:00.000+05:302012-01-25T14:25:34.810+05:30It is Australia Day!<div align="justify">The news media is full of reports from Australia; and the stories have a link with India. Of course, the stories and the laments have to do with the abject manner in which the Indian cricket team has been surrendering to the Kangaroos. But come January 26 and we will probably forget our humiliation in Australia and celebrate Republic Day by mostly saying nice things about ourselves; our success as a democracy and our ability to bounce back from crisis after crisis. Thousands of children will probably railroaded towards India Gate to watch the pomp and prowess of the new India.<br /><br />But some of us know that Australians will be doing the same thing on January 26. Just as Indians celebrate Jan 26 as the Republic Day, the folks down under celebrate Australia Day. A British ship " discovered" Australia on this day about 250 years ago. From those humble beginnings, Australia has emerged as one of the more exciting countries of the world. The moment you talk Australia, you talk about sports and athleticism. It is not just in cricket that Aussies ruled the world for so long. They excel in swimming, tennis, rugby and much more. Australians have not lost the irreverence that is a product of their legacy. In its early years as a colony of Britain, Australia was the place where criminals were packed off to. Virtually all white Australian can trace his or her ancestry back to some such poor should who was dispatched permanently from the mother country. No wonder, the Australians celebrate like mad when their cricket team demolishes England; and mourn when the reverse happens, as it has been happening recently.<br /><br />There is something about the Australian spirit that you have to admire. My colleague Saibal recently wrote a blog for this web site where he talked about how Michael Clarke declared even though he was batting on 329 and could have taken a shot at Brian Lara's record of 400 runs in a test innings. Clarke was more interested in team success than personal glory. Many years ago, Mark Taylor who was captain of the team declared even though he was batting on about 333. He then said that he wanted Australia to win and didn't want to break the record held by Don Bradman for a highest test innings by an Australian. Saibal also wrote about how many Indians we're up in rage back in 2004 when stand in captain Rahul Dravid declared even though our God Sachin Tendulkar was playing on 194. The idea was- how dare Dravid deny Tendulkar his double century? That is indeed the difference between India and Australia. We seem to be happier applauding personal achievements and milestones even as we collectively fail while Australians pay more important to collective success rather than personal milestones. Ironically, even without chasing personal milestones, Australians seem to excel even at the personal level.<br /><br />That sums up my admiration for Australia as it celebrates Australia Day. But let me also point out two less charitable aspects of Australia on their founding day. The first is linked to the European push into new lands beginning the 15 th century. Like in other places, the natives or the aboriginals in this case were virtually massacred as the whites pursued new lands, pastures and opportunities. So an entire continent that is so much larger than India became home initially only to whites. Remember, India adds an Australia to its population every year!<br /><br />The second aspect is the really deep flaw in Capitalism in practice; and the reason why advocates of free markets are being hypocritical when they advocate free trade and open markets. Capitalism means free movement of both capital and labour. Since the 20th century, we have a situation where the whites love free movement of capital but refuse to accept free movement of labour. Did God-of whichever religion- decree that vast lands like Australia have been reserved predominantly for whites? Why can't non whites- brown, black and otherwise have the freedom to go and work in places like Canada and Australia whenever they feel like it? That is the fundamental tenet of Capitalism isn't it?<br /><br />Still, many congrats to the Aussies as they celebrate their day of 'founding'!</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-67148965033906835262012-01-24T13:42:00.000+05:302012-01-24T13:43:07.213+05:30Mad, Mad American Politics<div align="justify">If you think that politics in India is crazy and that our system allows either the crooked or the unsuitable to win, you haven't been following American politics in all it's technicolor madness. Most of you are aware that the Republican Party out there is in the process of selecting a nominee who will take on Barrack Obama in presidential elections due this year in November. Till recently, it looked as Mitt Romney will easily win the nomination and perhaps even beat Obama who is quite unpopular because of the hard times that Americans are facing. But hard core and hard line Republicans detest Romney because his ideas are not as whacky and crazy as theirs. Like the one about climate change being a hoax, like the one about Charles Darwin being a charlatan and his theory of evolution of species a hoax, like the one about women who have been raped not being allowed to abort the baby and like the one about always lowering taxes for the rich because they create jobs and wealth. So in South Carolina, that has a lot of Republicans with such crazy ideas, they humiliated and gave a thumping victory to Newt Gingrich, who is more their type.<br /><br />Now who is Newt Gingrich. Well he is the man who hated Bill Clinton so much he shut down the government in the mid 1990s because he thought Clinton was spending recklessly. Of course, he didn't bat an eyelid when fellow Republican George Bush spent money so recklessly between 2001 and 2008 that a federal surplus ended up as a record deficit. He is the man who virtually led the campaign to impeach Bill Clinton because Clinton allegedly slept with an intern called Monica Lewinsky in the White House and lied about it. Of course, even as Gingrich was trying to railroad Clinton out of office for the alleged crime of an extra marital affair, Gingrich himself was merrily cheating on his wife. That doesn't matter to the hard core Republicans who think it is ok to sin as long as you repent and stay committed to the cause. Gingrich is now a serious challenger to Romney and the wackos are excited!<br /><br />Don't for a moment think that it is only Republicans who are capable of such duplicity. There is this guy called Elliot Spritzer who is a Harvard Law School graduate. As Attorney General of New York, he relentlessly went after people who he claimed "betrayed public trust". Elliot became the quintessential family man who symbolized integrity and fidelity. He prosecuted many Wall Street types and even broke up a prostitution ring that masqueraded as an escort service. Elliot was so successful that he ended up winning elections and became the Governor of New York in 2006. And then the penny dropped. It was discovered that Elliot himself was paying a prostitute to, what else, have sex with her. This upholder of public morals had to resign and seems to have disappeared from public view.<br /><br />I have given the examples of Gingrich and Spritzer to show how hilarious American politics can be. Of course, the Indian public and media is far more considerate when it comes to the sexual prowess and preferences of its politicians. We mostly nudge and wink and then, in a manner of speaking, let the sleeping dogs lie! Unless it comes to a point where even we find it difficult to ignore. Like N.D Tiwari frolicking with three nubile nymphets in his official mansion at Hyderabad when he was Governor of Andhra Pradesh. And yes, Tiwari was more than 80 years old when his antics became public. Now you know why Indian politicians never retire!. Then again, there was a minister cum strongman called Amarmani Tripathi in Uttar Pradesh who got embroiled with Madhumita Shukla. Or, in recent times, the Jat leader cum former minister Mahipal Maderna who took a fancy to a lady called Bhanwri Devi.<br /><br />Coming back to America, the problem is not just about politicians sleeping around. It is about the ideas they espouse the frightening number of cow belt Americans who believe in those ideas. Abortion, science, evolution and taxes, to name just a few. Let me give you a parallel of that scenario in India. What if Uma Bharti suddenly starts saying that sati is actually a good and honorable practice and remains electorally relevant and powerful? What if a fellow BJP traveller announces that the Manusmriti is as relevant as the Bible or the Qoran and remains electorally relevant and viable? What if Pratibha Patil publicly announces that astrology and planchette calls are as good as science as is reflected the President of India?<br /><br />Thank God for small mercies!</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-32022734665808374352012-01-23T15:52:00.003+05:302012-01-23T16:02:01.235+05:30So it is Jay Leno now...<div align="justify">Many Indians, living in gated neighbourhoods and nurturing illusions of being liberal and progressive, often rate the Late Show of Jay Leno as one of their favorites.<br /><br />There is no doubt the guy has got a sense of humor that can be quite whacky at times. Now, he is rapidly emerging as the latest hate figure for Indian twits, or is it tweets?<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiavl1Qrdp2LGKDAXSRHERl5ujaHK9qhXfRPwL8L4NUR0_WxoF8k9EsrVEGHgLGXZRxe14oAUi_97w08GAj8pGPchIrLpohgJ1nS2fh8jNgG5rObfRCwx9g7OuLDCj2B7eXcRlT7YVMDSk/s1600/Jay-Leno.jpg" target="_blank"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700773135550711314" title="Jay Leno" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 246px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 320px" alt="Jay Leno" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiavl1Qrdp2LGKDAXSRHERl5ujaHK9qhXfRPwL8L4NUR0_WxoF8k9EsrVEGHgLGXZRxe14oAUi_97w08GAj8pGPchIrLpohgJ1nS2fh8jNgG5rObfRCwx9g7OuLDCj2B7eXcRlT7YVMDSk/s320/Jay-Leno.jpg" border="0" /></a>In a recent show, Leno has apparently shown visuals of the Golden Temple at Amritsar and suggested that it become the summer residence for Mitt Romney, the guy who could become the Republican candidate to challenge Barrack Obama in this year’s presidential elections in America.<br /><br />The Golden Temple is the holy shrine for Sikhs across the world and all hell has predictably broken loose. Sikh organisations in America have reacted with outrage and demanded an apology from Leno. Even Indian authorities have jumped into the fray and criticised this Jay Leno stunt. Everyone is unanimous in saying that it is wrong, callous and unethical to hurt the sentiments of other communities and ethnic identities in such a manner. There is little doubt that Leno's antics are worse than being merely flippant and corny.<br /><br />But do we have to start yelling again that every Tom, Dick and Harry is involved in a conspiracy to hurt Indian sentiments through racist or insensitive comments? Just a while ago, the BBC show called Top Gear was slammed because the hosts were accused of peddling racist and cultural stereotypes that portray India in a poor light. Indian authorities even demanded an apology from BBC which is apparently yet to come. One of the things that the hosts did as they drove around India was to carry a portable toilet in their cars. How shitty can their racism be, isn't it? Then again, there was that event that literally resurrected the career of Shilpa Shetty, thanks to some racist remarks passed by the late and unlamented Jane Goody in the British version of Big Boss.<br /><br />And why stop at that. I think Mulsims are as much Indian as Sikhs are. So where is the harm in calling for the absence of Salmaan Rushdie from the Jaipur Lit Fest; at least that looks better than calling for his head. Then again, Arun Shourie got just deserts a few years ago as Buddhist supporters of Dr B.R Ambedkar threw shoes at him because Shourie had the temerity to disparage Ambedkar (it is a different matter that Shourie somehow finds ammunition to disparage Muslims, Christians and others, all except Hindus!). I have not finished. Many Christian organisations had demanded that the book Da Vinci Code and the film be banned from India.<br /><br />Many, many years ago, Christians - who are as much Indians as Muslims, Sikhs and Hindus are - had successfully persuaded the authorities to ban The Last Temptation of Christ. You can be proud of one aspect of Indian secularism at least - all religions and communities have the equal right to be offended and demand that the State must do something. The State - being uniquely and indisputably secular - usually complies!<br /><br />I have just two points to make here. The first is a request to fellow Indians to do what in Hindustani is called "apne ghireban main jhank ke dekho". It is our deep rooted mentality of being colonial slaves that makes us pay so much attention to what the West says. Look at how we behave like demented juveniles when the likes of Angelina Jolie and Oprah Winfrey land up in India. I swear to God - all Indian Gods included - this is true. I drive up to a dhaba in my BMW even as some scruffy, smelly hippes who are obviously white arrive at the same time. Invariably, the waiter first goes to them for orders. And then why do we crib when the West is less respectful towards us? If Jay Leno had said something similar about Jews, his career would have been blown to smithereens.<br /><br />The second point is even more important. Indian civilisation has always been considered unique because it has always encouraged space for all thoughts, all ideologies, all dogmas and all religions. Mutual respect and tolerance has been the cornerstone of our civilisation. Are we not losing it all because some stupid jerk somewhere says something derogatory about us? </div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-33861382137320740872012-01-21T15:03:00.000+05:302012-01-21T15:05:35.329+05:30Why do we make stupid laws?<div align="justify">There is a front page story in today's Times of India that talks about our policy and law makers doing a rethink on what has become notorious in India s Section 498(A). Under this law, a wife can file a dowry harassment case against her husband and ALL his relatives and once the FIR is registered, it becomes a non-bail able offense. Now, the powers that be are thinking loudly through carefully distributed stories in newspapers that a man who is accused of harassing his wife for dowry need not go to jail; he could pay a fine to atone for his sins. There is no doubt that activists who represent the so called fairer sex will be up in arms and claim that these new proposals to amend the dowry law are a throw back to feudal paternalism.<br /><br />The fact is, despite increased literacy and claims of Indians becoming more progressive, there are hundreds of thousands of women who are still harassed and tortured by their in laws and husbands for dowry. There is another fact: ever since this Section 498(A) came into force back in 1986, thousands of women have abused the provisions of this law to "harass" the husband and his family. The simple common sense thing to do would be to take note of both the facts and make a law that is sensible and fair. It says a lot about our society when it takes about 27 years and thousands of abuses before we even start acknowledging the fact that the law as it was drafted and passed was daft. The idea was great: the custom and practice of dowry is a curse and modern India must be ashamed of how even educated husbands and their families take dowry as a birthright and torture a woman who fails to satisfy their demands. The law, as we all now know, has proven to be stupid because women continue to be tortured for dowry even as innocent husbands and their families continue to be framed by scheming women.<br /><br />Our problem is with our obsession to be doing the good and the politically correct thing when we deal with social and economic problems. We inevitably end up with stupid laws that don't help anybody. Let me give another example of how our zeal to do the good thing can create monster laws. The Parliament- if it gets to work- will soon start debating the Communal Violence Bill. Under this proposed law, Hindus will always be the guilty party if there is a riot. Under this law, any Muslim or Christian can accuse a Hindu-bigoted or not-of insulting minorities. Like in the case of 498(A), the "offense" will be non bailable. Now let's us examine facts again. There is no doubt that minorities are usually the victims of riots and persecution-just as women are victims of dowry harassment. So the intention is noble. But if it is passed, this law will be even more stupid and dangerous than the dowry law. The fact is there are Muslim dominated areas in India where other minorities are persecuted and worse. The recent events in Kashmir are a telling example. Then again, even a fool will not deny that you will find bigots amongst Hindus, Muslims, Christians and Sikhs. What is to stop bigoted Muslims from filing false cases against Hindus-just as scheming women have been filing false cases against husbands? Like with the dowry law, we started out with the idea of doing the good thing, but end up destroying society. These stupid laws don't stop what they started out to do: they only create divisions and mistrust. I know of husbands who constantly worry about what might happen if the wifey files a 498(A). We will all know of Hindus who will wonder and be fearful of a bigoted-or with some agenda- Muslim, Christian or Sikh who might file a case against them if they said publicly that any Muslim who supports Hafeez Saeed of LET represents the intolerant and barbaric strain of Islam. Why not have a law that doesn't distinguish between religions, communities and genders?<br /><br />The proposed Land Acquisition Bill and the Forest Rights Bill are two more examples of stupid laws. There is no doubt that many companies in cahoots with corrupt politicians and bureaucrats grab land from poor farmers. But will a law that makes every such deal illegal help? What about farmers who really want to sell out and move on? And of course the Forest Bill. Our do gooders think we all exploit tribals and forest dwellers. So the inevitable stupid law is to ban any other Indian from owning land in places inhabited by forest dwellers. What if forest dwellers want their children to move on towards a more rural or even urban life? And who will stop Benjamin transactions where our same law makers will acquire the same lands through subterfuge?<br /><br />Are we going to be eternally condemned to live with stupid laws just because a few do gooders think that the road to hell is never paved with noble intentions?</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-62122291997237123822012-01-20T10:35:00.000+05:302012-01-20T10:47:07.873+05:30INDIA'S BRAND NEW CABINET<div style="text-align: justify;">Manmohan Singh is a relieved man. Tired of carrying the burden of a non-performing UPA, he is now delirious with joy because he has been finally given the green light to reshuffle his cabinet. [Incidentally, he didn't mind the fact that the green light came from the IPL Chairman Rajiv Shukla.] Poor Dr. Singh is disgusted with his UPA-2 cabinet that he would have jumped for joy even if the message had come from Kiran Bedi, or Mani Shankar Aiyer for that matter. After hurried consultations with Ravi Shastri, Sunil Gavaskar and K. Srikkanth (Sourav Ganguly was not called because Congressmen are a little wary of Bengalis at the moment because of the Mamata factor), the great communicator has announced the following new appointments:<br /><br />- Sachin Tendulkar as Minister of Surface Transport: Why not? Like his 100th century, Indian highways take forever to be built. And by the time they are built, the Indian economy, like the Indian cricket team, would be ruined.<br /><br />- Virat Kohli as Minister of External Affairs: A natural choice. Hawks have been for long demanding that India must assert forcefully that it is a big player on the global stage. By using that old Great Game strategy called 'The Middle Finger', this youthful leader has more than proven his credentials for the job.<br /><br />- Ishant Sharma as Minister for Parliamentary Affairs: By repeatedly failing to either bowl out or curb the opposition, Sharma has demonstrated the true qualities needed for this portfolio. Besides, using unparliamentary language with David Warner who smacked him for sixes has added weight to his credentials.<br /><br />- Virender Sehwag as Minister of Defence: By consistently flashing outside the off stump and giving catching practice to people on the off side, Sehwag has proven that suicidal offence is the best form of offence for India to deal with its enemies. After all, he used to lead an IPL team called Delhi Daredevils. Of course, he narrowly beat Rahul Dravid, who is busy creating his own unique version of the great Wall.<br /><br />- Zaheer Khan as Minister for Minority Affairs: Since most parties contesting assembly elections are competing with each other on providing quotas for Muslims, this talented swing bowler could only find this pigeon hole to be placed in. Maybe his left arm can do what the Right can never dream of doing.<br /><br />- MS Dhoni as Minister of HRD: Who better qualified to talk of leadership, modern day skills and 21st century fighting spirit even as your nation or team is basically illiterate (literally or cricket wise), ignorant (cricket wise) and idiotic (both wise). Of course, K. Srikkanth, N.Srinivasan and IPL will ensure he remains relevant like the Aaakash Tablet.<br /><br />- Rohit Sharma as Minister of State for All Affairs: Like most Ministers of State, Sharma never got to do any work because the oldies won't just let go.<br /><br />Once he finished finalising this new cabinet, Dr. Singh actually started doing cartwheels even as he ran towards 10, Janpath. Even the SPG commandos hired for his protection found it difficult to keep pace with him. Suddenly, he found Sunil Gavaskar and Ravi Shastri who were waiting for Rajiv Shukla who was waiting for Ahmed Patel who was waiting for... Dr Singh couldn't care less. He shouted joyfully for the whole nation to hear: Eurêka! Who better than Sharad Pawar to be the Prime Minister with this new cabinet!</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-59847007660816669232012-01-20T10:30:00.000+05:302012-01-20T11:42:35.939+05:30Our Mai Baap Sarkar<div style="text-align: justify;">Many newspapers carried an interesting photo on January 19, 2012. It showed the who is who of India Inc in a meeting with the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, the deputy chairman of the Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the new all powerful bureaucrat in the PMO Pulok Chatterjee and sundry other ministers and officials. India Inc was represented by Ratan Tata and his anointed successor Cyrus Mistry, Anil Ambani, brothers Sajjan and Naveen Jindal(who happens to be a Congress Lok Sabha MP), the chairman of Vedanta Anil Agarwal, Ashoka Hinduja of the Hinduja group, three new age barons from Andhra Pradesh G M Rao of the GMR group(his group runs the Delhi airport and is asking for a 800% plus hike in airport user charges), Sanjay Reddy of the GVK group and Madhusudan Rao of the Lancôme group. Some others present were Prashant Ruia of the Essar group and Gautama Adani of Adani Enterprises. Apart from Ratan Tata, I think all the other belong to the hallowed club of dollar billionaires. Collectively,nthe value of their equity holdings even at today's depressed stock market prices could finance the NREGA scheme for almost 10 years<br /><br />You might be thinking the Union Budget is round the corner and these titans were pow wowing with the Prime Minister and other big wigs about the future of the Indian economy. You are wrong. This powerful group of businessmen had come as supplicants, or beggars if you choose to be politically incorrect. All of them have invested in, are in the process of investing in or have plans to invest in the power sector in India. Almost all have signed agreements to buy coal and gas at pre determined prices and sell electricity to utilities at pre determined prices. The problem is, they are not able to get their hands on either coal or gas from domestic suppliers. The fall of the Rupee against the dollar has made imported oil and gas terribly expensive. And of course, the Ministry of Environment and Forests simply swats away plans, projects and proposals to increase coal production in the country. These barons are now claiming that the power projects are becoming financially unviable. And it is no joke. They have already invested $ 40 to $ 50 billion in new power projects and are scheduled to invest another $ 50 billion plus over the next five years. And even a school student knows that these investments are crucial because India already faces intolerable power cuts. This winter, the power cuts have been so bad that residents of Srinagar have been forced to make pilgrimages to hospitals to charge their mobile phones since some hospitals were the only place with some electricity supply.<br /><br />The aftermath of the meeting was even more revealing. Newspapers reported how the industrialists were elated at the response of the Prime Minister who apparently instructed Pulok Chatterjee to fix the problem in a hurry. Of course, a committee of secretaries will now meet every week to push for solutions. This hallowed group has been promised another pow wow by Dr Singh in 90 days to take stock of progress. Apparently, one of the solutions is that the Ministry of Environment will not stop a 25% hike in production from captive coal mines. Incidentally, India has the fourth largest reserves of coal in the world. And yet, coal output is so woefully inadequate that power and steel companies have to import tens of million tons of coal every year to keep their plants running. And of course, you and me have to spend massive sums every month on generators, inverters, 'private' power and other sources while the poor in the interiors of India are going back to the era of candles and lanterns.<br /><br />This one meeting revealed how important the State still is in India and the kind of discretionary powers that it still wields over all of us. If the likes of Ratan Tata and Anil Ambani have to trudge to Delhi hat in hand, what chance do we have of being spared the indignities heaped every day on us by our Mai Baap Sarkar?</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3745019500857565552.post-30950144975818695202012-01-17T11:33:00.000+05:302012-01-17T11:34:12.412+05:30Shameless & Sham Secularism<div style="text-align: justify;">A confession here. Sometime back, I had given the same headline to my editorial in our sister publication Business & Economy. I am stealing my own headline simply because I can't think of anything else that can be mor apt and more depressing. Yes, I am talking about the stealth announcement-an announcement without announcing anything-that Salmaan Rushdie will not be attending the Jaipur Literature festival (JLF). As reported in The Times of India, nobody is willing to say anything officially, but cops in Rajasthan have made it clear off the record that Rushdie will skip the meet. We don't know yet if he has done this voluntarily or the organisers were 'persuaded' by the authorities to 'persuade' him to back off. What we know through subtly dropped off the record hints is that the authorities were afraid that Rushdies presence might create a law and order problem and a 'security' threat because some Muslim organizations might stage a protest at the venue. This comes soon after the preeminent Muslim seminary based in Deoband announced that it would be happy if Salmaan Rushdie was barred by the authorities from entering India. The reason goes back about 23 years when India became the first country in the world to ban The Satanic Verses, the controversial book written by Rushdie that inflamed Muslim opinion across the world. Thanks to the book, the then de facto ruler of of Iran, Ayatollah Khoemeni pronounced a death sentence on Rushdie. Incidentally, Rushdie did attend the JLF in 2007. So why the brouhaha this time around? Why, because Uttar Pradesh is staring at a crucial assembly elections and political parties are desperately chasing the 'Muslim vote bank'. It says a lot both about the cynicism and stupidity of our political parties that they think Muslims will start voting based on the fact that Rushdie was prevented from attending a popular literary festival. It says a lot about the nature of shameless and sham secularism in India.<br /><br />Every time I point this out, my 'secular' friends pounce on me and say that fundamentalism practiced by the Hindutva brigade is far more pernicious and dangerous. They promptly point out to the antics of outfits like Bajrang Dal and Sri Ram Sene. I one recent instance, Sri Ram Sene goons themselves hoisted a flag of Pakistan in karnataka and then started violent demosntartions against it. Thankfully, we were spared a riot. But the fact is-despite a BJP government there, the police called the bluff of Sr Ram Sene and did it successfully. And surely we all know how Narendra Modi continues to be hounded for the post Godhra riots that savaged Gujarat in 2002. Every time Hindutva goons try something funny or fishy, there are hundreds and thousands of sane Indians who pounce on them. It is this robust mix of activism and media-and the innate common sense of most Indians-that has prevented rogue Hindustva outfits from emerging beyond their fringe existence.<br /><br />But surely intolerance and prejudice if practised by some Muslims needs to be condemned equally loudly. In my Business & Economy editorial, I had pointed out how a pastor in Srinagar was hounded, arrested and harassed because he allegedly tried to convert some young Muslims to Christianity. Not a single word of protest emanated from our secular warriors when the so called Grand Mufti of Kashmir summoned the pastor for a de facto 'court' appearance.<br /><br />For the love of my life, I cannot understand why or how our secular warriors can be so blind. Every time they let a fundamentalist Muslim outfit or group or a bunch of people get away with their openly fundamentalist views without a protest, it gives more ammunition to rogue Hindutva elements. This time again, rest assured you will hear from many such advocates how India panders to Muslims and how Hindus get shoddy treatment in their 'own country'<br /><br />The only way you can ask Hindu fundamentalists to shut up is when you do the same to Muslim fundamentalists. Or Sikh fundamentalists. Or Christian fundamentalists. But then, that would be too much of a leap of faith for our secular warriors.</div>Sutanu Guruhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17427212158524547276noreply@blogger.com0